基于改進(jìn)逆推算法的臺風(fēng)氣象服務(wù)綜合效益評估研究

doi:10.12306/2021jms.0020

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基于改進(jìn)逆推算法的臺風(fēng)氣象服務(wù)綜合效益評估研究
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                        10.12306/2021jms.0020
                    
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中圖分類號:S16
基金項(xiàng)目:國家自然科學(xué)基金青年基金資助項(xiàng)目（41805036）；江蘇省氣象學(xué)會青年科研基金資助項(xiàng)目（KQ201908）

Research on comprehensive benefit assessment of typhoon meteorological services based on improved inverse algorithm

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為了更加科學(xué)地定量化評估臺風(fēng)氣象服務(wù)綜合效益,運(yùn)用改進(jìn)的逆推算法,結(jié)合層次分析法,綜合考慮臺風(fēng)的氣象服務(wù)水平、政府防災(zāi)減災(zāi)決策及組織能力、行業(yè)防臺減災(zāi)能力、公眾防臺減災(zāi)自救互救能力、防災(zāi)減災(zāi)成本和不可避免損失等因子,建立了臺風(fēng)氣象服務(wù)效益定量化評估模型。以2018年嚴(yán)重影響江蘇的18號臺風(fēng)"溫比亞"為例,設(shè)計(jì)了調(diào)查問卷,對評估模型各因子進(jìn)行了調(diào)查及評估計(jì)算,得到該臺風(fēng)氣象服務(wù)綜合效益值。結(jié)果表明:由于臺風(fēng)氣象服務(wù),取得綜合效益14.48億元,有效避免了40.9%的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失;評估方法較以往研究考慮因子更為全面,同時具有可操作性較強(qiáng)、符合氣象服務(wù)實(shí)際情況等特點(diǎn),可進(jìn)行業(yè)務(wù)化推廣;同時評估結(jié)果定量化評價了政府在防災(zāi)減災(zāi)中的決策作用和決策的宏觀效果、行業(yè)及公眾的防災(zāi)減災(zāi)能力等,可為政府制定防災(zāi)減災(zāi)策略、從而進(jìn)一步提升全社會防臺減災(zāi)能力提供參考依據(jù)。

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In order to evaluate comprehensive benefits of typhoon meteorological service more quantitatively and scientifically, a quantitative assessing model for the comprehensive benefits of typhoon meteorological service was established by improving inverse algorithm, employing analytic hierarchy process, and comprehensively considering factors including typhoon meteorological services level, government decision-making and organizational capabilities for disaster prevention and mitigation, industry disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities, public disaster prevention, mitigation, self-rescue and mutual-rescue capabilities, disaster prevention and mitigation costs, and inevitable losses. Taking the 18 Typhoon "Rumbia" affecting Jiangsu seriously in 2018 as an example, a questionnaire was designed to investigate, evaluate and calculate each factor of the assessing model to obtain the comprehensive benefits of typhoon meteorological service. Results show that comprehensive benefits of 1.448 billion yuan were achieved and 40.9% of economic losses were effectively avoided due to typhoon meteorological service. The assessing method takes more factors into consideration comprehensively than previous studies and has the characteristics of strong operability and conformity with the actual conditions of meteorological services, which can be promoted for commercialization. Moreover, the assessing results quantitatively evaluates the governments decision-making role and the macro-effects in disaster prevention and mitigation, and the disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities of the industry and the public. It can design disaster prevention and mitigation strategies for the government, thereby providing references to further improve the whole societys disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities.

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田心如,張雪蓉,侯俊.基于改進(jìn)逆推算法的臺風(fēng)氣象服務(wù)綜合效益評估研究.氣象科學(xué),2021,41(6):835-843 TIAN Xinru, ZHANG Xuerong, HOU Jun. Research on comprehensive benefit assessment of typhoon meteorological services based on improved inverse algorithm. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2021,41(6):835-843

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收稿日期:2020-05-27
最后修改日期:2021-01-08
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2022-01-10
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