Ningaloo Niño/Niña與華南冬季降水異常的聯系

doi:10.12306/2020jms.0089

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Ningaloo Niño/Niña與華南冬季降水異常的聯系
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                        10.12306/2020jms.0089
                    
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中圖分類號:P461.2
基金項目:國家自然科學基金資助項目(41831174;42175035;42175034);國家重點研發(fā)計劃專項資助項目(2017YFA0603804)

Association of Ningaloo Niño/Niña with winter precipitation anomaly in South China

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利用1979—2017年逐月平均的NOAA ERSST V3b海表溫度資料、CN05.1降水資料以及NCEP/NCAR大氣再分析資料,分析了Ningaloo Niño/Niña的基本特征及其與華南冬季降水異常的聯系。結果表明,Ningaloo Niño/Niña是副熱帶東印度洋海溫異常EOF第一模態(tài),具有明顯的年際變化特征和季節(jié)鎖相特性。在扣除El Niño/La Niña的影響后,Ningaloo Niño/Niña與華南冬季降水異常存在著密切的聯系,即Ningaloo Niño(Niña)年時,華南地區(qū)冬季降水增多(減少)。這種影響的可能機制是:Ningaloo Niño/Niña通過影響南支槽的強度變化進而影響華南冬季降水異常。Ningaloo Niño年冬季,澳大利亞西側海表溫度升高,對流增強,使南半球80°~100°E附近的Hadley環(huán)流上升支增強,造成經向環(huán)流異常,北半球低緯度地區(qū)形成一個異常的反環(huán)流圈,導致南支槽的增強。南支槽的強度與華南冬季降水呈正相關關系,南支槽強度偏強時,活躍的擾動向下游傳播,槽前盛行的西南氣流使得充足的水汽自孟加拉灣由西南向東北方向輸入,為華南冬季降水偏多提供了條件,Ningaloo Niña年份的情形則與之相反。

Abstract:

Based on 1979-2017 monthly Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data from NOAA ERSST V3b, CN05.1 precipitation data, and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the variation of Ningaloo Niño/Niña and its association with winter precipitation anomaly in South China were investigated. Results suggest that Ningaloo Niño/Niña is the first EOF mode of SST anomaly in the subtropical East Indian Ocean with significant interannual variability and seasonal lock phase features. After deducting the effects of El Niño/La Niña, there is a close relationship between Ningaloo Niño/Niña and winter precipitation in South China, more (less) winter precipitation in South China during the Ningaloo Niño (Niña) year. The possible mechanism for this effect is that Ningaloo Niño/Niña affects winter precipitation in southern China by influencing the intensity of southern branch trough. An enhanced convection occurs in western Australia during the winter of Ningaloo Niño, and then results in an anomalous longitudinal circulation cell and anomalous counter-circulation cell in the lower latitudes of the northern hemisphere, which enhances the southern branch trough. The intensity of the trough in southern branch is positively correlated with the winter precipitation in southern China. When southern branch trough is strong, the active disturbance propagates downstream, and the prevailing southwesterly flow in front of the trough makes sufficient water vapor from the Bay of Bengal flowing from southwest to northeast, in favor of more winter precipitation in southern China, and vice versa for Ningaloo Niña years.

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吳越,曾剛,楊效業(yè),李忠賢. Ningaloo Niño/Niña與華南冬季降水異常的聯系.氣象科學,2022,42(1):24-32 WU Yue, ZENG Gang, YANG Xiaoye, LI Zhongxian. Association of Ningaloo Niño/Niña with winter precipitation anomaly in South China. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2022,42(1):24-32

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收稿日期:2020-06-23
最后修改日期:2020-08-09
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2022-06-01
出版日期: 2022-05-30

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