“一帶一路”區(qū)域近57a干旱事件及其人口暴露度特征

doi:10.12306/2020jms.0040

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“一帶一路”區(qū)域近57a干旱事件及其人口暴露度特征
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                        10.12306/2020jms.0040
                    
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中圖分類號(hào):P423
基金項(xiàng)目:國(guó)家重點(diǎn)研發(fā)計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(2017YFA0603701);國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目(41971023);科技部基礎(chǔ)資源調(diào)查專項(xiàng)(2018FY100501)

Drought events characteristics and its population exposure in the Belt and Road region during 1960 to 2016

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基于東英吉利大學(xué)氣候研究所全球逐月降水與潛在蒸散發(fā)格點(diǎn)數(shù)據(jù)集,以標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化降水蒸散指數(shù)為干旱指標(biāo),采用改進(jìn)的強(qiáng)度—面積—持續(xù)時(shí)間極端事件識(shí)別方法,對(duì)"一帶一路"區(qū)域干旱事件及其人口暴露度特征進(jìn)行研究。結(jié)果表明:(1)1960—2016年"一帶一路"區(qū)域呈現(xiàn)變干趨勢(shì),至1992年有所緩解,空間上顯著干旱區(qū)域主要分布在沙特阿拉伯、伊朗、蒙古、中國(guó)等。(2)區(qū)域年均發(fā)生干旱事件89次,以持續(xù)1—2個(gè)月干旱事件為主,占總事件頻次的82%;年均總影響面積約0.92×10⁸ km²,以持續(xù)3—5個(gè)月的干旱事件影響面積最大,約占年均總影響面積的44.8%;干旱事件最強(qiáng)中心強(qiáng)度均達(dá)到極端干旱強(qiáng)度。(3)持續(xù)3—5和6—8個(gè)月干旱事件頻次、影響面積和事件最強(qiáng)中心強(qiáng)度均呈增加趨勢(shì),需引起重視。(4)區(qū)域干旱事件的人口暴露度多年均值為5.43億人,不同持續(xù)時(shí)間干旱事件的人口暴露度均顯著增加,尤其2000年以后,年均人口暴露度達(dá)7.88億人,較多年均值高出45%。

Abstract:

Based on the global monthly precipitation and potential evapotranspiration grid data set of the Climate Research Institute of the University of East Anglia, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was used as the drought index, and the Improved Intensity-Area-Duration (IAD) method was adopted to analyze the Belt and Road region drought events and population exposure characteristics. Results show that:(1) during 1960 to 2016, the Belt and Road region is found under a trend of drying, but the drought is eased since 1992, and the spatially significant arid regions are mainly distributed over the Saudi Arabia, Iran, Mongolia, China and other countries. (2) In the region, drought events occur 89 times annually, mainly lasting for 1-2 months, accounting for 82% of the total event frequency; the average annual affected area is about 0.92×10⁸ km², and the drought events lasting for 3-5 months usually affect the largest area, which accounts for about 44.8% of the total affected areas. The strongest central intensity of drought events reaches extreme drought intensity. (3) The frequency, affected area and intensity of the strongest center of drought events in the 3-5 and 6-8 consecutive months show an increasing trend, which requires attention. (4) The multi-year average population exposure of regional drought events is 543 million and the population exposure of drought events of different duration increases significantly. Especially after 2000, the average annual population exposure reaches 788 million, which is 45% higher than the multi-year average.

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周舟,王艷君,黃金龍,呂嫣冉,姜彤.“一帶一路”區(qū)域近57a干旱事件及其人口暴露度特征.氣象科學(xué),2022,42(1):61-69 ZHOU Zhou, WANG Yanjun, HUANG Jinlong, LV Yanran, JIANG Tong. Drought events characteristics and its population exposure in the Belt and Road region during 1960 to 2016. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2022,42(1):61-69

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收稿日期:2020-03-31
最后修改日期:2020-05-06
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2022-06-01
出版日期: 2022-05-30

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