東北春季極端連續(xù)無雨日與前冬北太平洋 海平面氣壓的可能聯(lián)系

doi:10.12306/2021jms.0101

首頁 > 過刊瀏覽>2022年第42卷第2期 >143-151. DOI:10.12306/2021jms.0101

東北春季極端連續(xù)無雨日與前冬北太平洋 海平面氣壓的可能聯(lián)系
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                        10.12306/2021jms.0101
                    
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中圖分類號:P426.616
基金項目:國家自然科學(xué)基金資助項目(41825010;41991281)

Possible relationship between spring extreme consecutive dry days over Northeast China and North Pacific sea level pressure in the preceding winter

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基于1960—2019年中國東北地區(qū)108個臺站逐日降水資料、JRA-55再分析資料和Hadley中心海溫數(shù)據(jù),分析了東北地區(qū)春季極端連續(xù)無雨日的年際變化特征及其與前冬北太平洋地區(qū)大氣環(huán)流和海表溫度的關(guān)系。研究表明,東北地區(qū)春季極端連續(xù)無雨日集中在3—4月。當(dāng)3—4月極端連續(xù)無雨日偏多時,貝加爾湖地區(qū)存在異常高壓,東北地區(qū)受偏北氣流影響,局地水汽輻散。進(jìn)一步分析發(fā)現(xiàn),東北地區(qū)3—4月極端連續(xù)無雨日與前冬1—2月北太平洋地區(qū)偶極型海平面氣壓存在密切聯(lián)系。該大氣模態(tài)可以引起同期北太平洋海溫呈現(xiàn)出馬蹄形異常分布并持續(xù)到3—4月。在3—4月,海溫異?？梢酝ㄟ^改變北太平洋上空的經(jīng)向溫度梯度,引起東亞到北太平洋地區(qū)的西風(fēng)變化,進(jìn)而有利于貝加爾湖地區(qū)出現(xiàn)異常高壓。另一方面,海溫異常還會增強北半球中緯度的波列活動,東傳的波列也可以增強貝加爾湖地區(qū)的高壓。上述異常環(huán)流為東北地區(qū)極端連續(xù)無雨日的增加提供了有利背景條件。留一交叉驗證結(jié)果顯示,前冬1—2月北太平洋地區(qū)偶極型海平面氣壓可作為東北春季極端連續(xù)無雨日的潛在預(yù)測因子。

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Based on daily precipitation data of 108 stations over Northeast China from 1960 to 2019, JRA-55 atmospheric reanalysis, and Hadley Center sea surface temperature (SST) data, this study investigates the interannual variability of spring extreme consecutive dry days(extreme-CDDs) over Northeast China and its relationship with preceding winter atmospheric circulation and SST over the North Pacific. The results show that the spring extreme-CDDs over Northeast China are concentrated in March-April. With more extreme-CDDs in March-April, there is an abnormal high pressure over the Baikal Lake region, and Northeast China is simultaner ously influenced by the high related abnormal northerly airflow and local water vapor divergence. Further analysis found that the interannual variability of March-April extreme-CDDs over Northeast China has a close relationship with a dipole pattern of sea level pressure over the North Pacific in preceding January-February. This atmospheric pattern can lead to horseshoe-shaped SST anomalies in the North Pacific in January-February, and the SST anomalies can persist into the following March-April and change the meridional temperature gradient over the North Pacific, consequently resulting in westerly anomalies over the region from East Asia to North Pacific and favoring anomalous high over the Lake Baikal region. In addition, the SST anomalies can enhance the mid-latitude wave activity, and the related wave train can propagate eastward to East Asia, also contributing to anomalous high over the Lake Baikal region. The aforementioned atmospheric circulation anomalies provide favorable background conditions for more extreme-CDDs over Northeast China. The leave-one-out cross-validation result indicates that the preceding winter dipole pattern of sea level pressure over the North Pacific can be used as a potential predictor for the spring extreme-CDDs over Northeast China.

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李晨曦,曾子旋,洪海旭,張夢琪,孫建奇,華維.東北春季極端連續(xù)無雨日與前冬北太平洋海平面氣壓的可能聯(lián)系.氣象科學(xué),2022,42(2):143-151 LI Chenxi, ZENG Zixuan, HONG Haixu, ZHANG Mengqi, SUN Jianqi, HUA Wei. Possible relationship between spring extreme consecutive dry days over Northeast China and North Pacific sea level pressure in the preceding winter. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2022,42(2):143-151

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收稿日期:2021-11-15
最后修改日期:2021-12-02
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2022-05-31
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