ECMWF極端天氣指數(shù)在華東臺風 降水預(yù)報中的應(yīng)用和檢驗

doi:10.12306/2021jms.0002

首頁 > 過刊瀏覽>2022年第42卷第2期 >182-192. DOI:10.12306/2021jms.0002

ECMWF極端天氣指數(shù)在華東臺風 降水預(yù)報中的應(yīng)用和檢驗
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                        10.12306/2021jms.0002
                    
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中圖分類號:P456
基金項目:中國氣象局氣象預(yù)報業(yè)務(wù)關(guān)鍵技術(shù)發(fā)展專項(YBGJXM20181B-06);浙江省氣象局預(yù)報員專項(2019YBY02)

Application and verification of ECMWF extreme index in typhoon precipitation forecast in East China

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摘要:

選取2015—2018年影響華東地區(qū)的13個臺風個例,分析降水極端天氣指數(shù)EFI (Extreme Forecast Index)和SOT (Shift of Tails)與臺風降水之間的統(tǒng)計關(guān)系。結(jié)果表明:EFI和SOT與降水氣候百分位之間存在明顯的正相關(guān)關(guān)系。EFI和SOT越大,強降水發(fā)生概率越高。隨著預(yù)報時效的增加,EFI和SOT指數(shù)對暴雨和大暴雨的預(yù)報效果逐漸變差。對于短期(72 h以內(nèi)的時效),EFI預(yù)報技巧優(yōu)于SOT,而隨著預(yù)報時效的延長,SOT的預(yù)報技巧逐漸接近并超過EFI。以TS評分最大為標準兼顧合理的預(yù)報偏差,得到兩種極端天氣指數(shù)不同預(yù)報時效、不同等級暴雨的預(yù)報閾值。總體而言,事件越極端,EFI和SOT的預(yù)報閾值越大,對于暴雨和大暴雨,EFI指數(shù)的預(yù)報閾值隨著預(yù)報時效的延長有減小趨勢,而SOT的預(yù)報閾值基本保持不變。在臺風極端降水預(yù)報中,EFI和SOT可以作為EC定量降水預(yù)報的補充,有助于減少強降水的漏報,并提早發(fā)出預(yù)警信息。

Abstract:

Thirteen cases of typhoon that affected East China during 2015-2018 are selected to study the statistical relationship between the Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) as well as "Shift Of Tail" index (SOT) from ECMWF ensemble forecast system and the observed rainfall cause by typhoon. Results show that there is a significant positive correlation between the EFI and SOT indices and the percentile of precipitation, and we found that the higher the EFI and SOT, the greater probability of rainstorm occurrence. For the forecast of rainstorm and heavy rainstorm, the forecast effectiveness of EFI and SOT gradually get worse with the increase of forecast time. For short-term forecast time within 72 h, the forecast skill of EFI is better than that of SOT. However, with the extension of forecast time, the forecast skill of SOT gradually approaches and exceeds that of EFI. By taking the maximum TS score as a criterion and taking into account reasonable forecast deviations, the forecast thresholds of the two types of EFI with different forecast times and different levels of heavy rainstorm were obtained. In general, the more extreme the event of precipitation, the larger the forecast threshold for EFI and SOT indices. For rainstorm and heavy rainstorm, the forecast threshold of the EFI tends to decrease with the extension of forecast time, while the threshold of the SOT remains almost unchanged. In the forecast of typhoon extreme precipitation, the EFI and SOT index can be used as supplement for bettering EC quantitative precipitation forecast. The combination of EC forecast and EFI and SOT indices can help to reduce the probability of missed detection of heavy precipitation in order to provide early warnings.

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傅良,羅玲,張玉靜,婁小芬,錢浩. ECMWF極端天氣指數(shù)在華東臺風降水預(yù)報中的應(yīng)用和檢驗.氣象科學(xué),2022,42(2):182-192 FU Liang, LUO Ling, ZHANG Yujing, LOU Xiaofen, QIAN Hao. Application and verification of ECMWF extreme index in typhoon precipitation forecast in East China. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2022,42(2):182-192

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收稿日期:2020-04-07
最后修改日期:2020-10-18
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2022-05-31
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