MJO活動(dòng)軌跡對(duì)貴州區(qū)域強(qiáng)降水過(guò)程 延伸期預(yù)報(bào)的影響分析

doi:10.12306/2020jms.0038

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MJO活動(dòng)軌跡對(duì)貴州區(qū)域強(qiáng)降水過(guò)程 延伸期預(yù)報(bào)的影響分析
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                        10.12306/2020jms.0038
                    
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中圖分類號(hào):P434;P466
基金項(xiàng)目:高原與盆地暴雨旱澇災(zāi)害四川省重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室開(kāi)放研究基金項(xiàng)目(SZKT201909)

Extended-range forecast of the regional heavy rainfall process in Guizhou by studying MJO activity trajectory

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摘要:

通過(guò)對(duì)貴州省主汛期季節(jié)內(nèi)振蕩(Intra-Seasonal Oscillation,ISO)活躍年進(jìn)行低頻對(duì)流場(chǎng)和降水的合成分析,確定了影響貴州主汛期ISO和降水的熱帶印度洋(Indian Ocean,IO)低頻對(duì)流關(guān)鍵區(qū)和南海(South China Sea,SCS)低頻對(duì)流關(guān)鍵區(qū),并利用MJO活動(dòng)軌跡對(duì)貴州區(qū)域強(qiáng)降水過(guò)程開(kāi)展了延伸期預(yù)報(bào)試驗(yàn)。將貴州省主汛期ISO位相劃分為發(fā)展、峰值、減弱、抑制、谷值和恢復(fù)6個(gè)位相,發(fā)現(xiàn)貴州主汛期ISO活躍年的降水與本地區(qū)低頻對(duì)流具有較好的對(duì)應(yīng)關(guān)系,即在峰值位相時(shí)低頻對(duì)流最強(qiáng)、降水正異常強(qiáng)度最強(qiáng);在谷值位相時(shí)低頻對(duì)流最弱、降水負(fù)異常強(qiáng)度最強(qiáng)。同時(shí),熱帶和副熱帶低頻對(duì)流場(chǎng)在貴州主汛期ISO波動(dòng)的第1、4位相、第2、5位相及第3、6位相均呈反位相特征。在熱帶印度洋低頻對(duì)流發(fā)展、并東傳的過(guò)程中,有兩條傳播路徑分別激發(fā)了孟加拉灣西南季風(fēng)ISO活躍和南海熱帶季風(fēng)ISO活躍共同影響貴州主汛期降水;在貴州主汛期有3個(gè)低頻對(duì)流活躍期,IO關(guān)鍵區(qū)和SCS關(guān)鍵區(qū)ISO都有3次提前的低頻對(duì)流加強(qiáng)?；谏鲜鲅芯?分析MJO活動(dòng)軌跡對(duì)貴州主汛期區(qū)域強(qiáng)降水過(guò)程的影響,發(fā)現(xiàn)熱帶印度洋MJO活動(dòng)中心強(qiáng)度在貴州區(qū)域強(qiáng)降水過(guò)程發(fā)生前15 d~前3 d具有較好的持續(xù)性預(yù)報(bào)信號(hào),提前9 d時(shí)正相關(guān)性最好。與延伸期預(yù)報(bào)業(yè)務(wù)規(guī)定的預(yù)報(bào)時(shí)段(未來(lái)11~30 d)相結(jié)合,通過(guò)確定貴州典型區(qū)域強(qiáng)降水過(guò)程發(fā)生前(提前量為10 d)至過(guò)程結(jié)束時(shí)段的MJO活動(dòng)軌跡在歷年中的最相似時(shí)段,發(fā)現(xiàn)MJO活動(dòng)中心軌跡和強(qiáng)度對(duì)貴州區(qū)域強(qiáng)降水過(guò)程的趨勢(shì)預(yù)報(bào)具有較好的指示意義。

Abstract:

Based on the composite analysis of low-frequency convective field and precipitation features in the active year of the Intra-Seasonal Oscillation (ISO) in the main flood period of Guizhou, key areas with low-frequency convection which affect the ISO and precipitation during main flood period were identified over tropical Indian Ocean (IO) and the South China Sea (SCS), respectively. Moreover, the extended-term forecast experiment of the heavy rainfall process in Guizhou was carried out by using MJO activity trajectory. The six ISO phases of the main flood period in Guizhou can be identified as:development, peak, weakening, suppression, valley and recovery. It is found that the precipitation in the ISO active year during the main flood period in Guizhou has a good correlation with the low-frequency convection occurred in the region, i.e. the strongest low-frequency convection occurred with the strongest positive precipitation intensity anomaly in the peak phase, and the weakest low-frequency convection occurred with the most negative precipitation anomaly in the valley phase. Besides, the 1st and 4th phases, the 2nd and 5th phases, and the 3rd and 6th phases of the ISO fluctuation show anti-phase characteristics of the tropical and subtropical low-frequency convective fields during the main flood period in Guizhou. During the development and eastward propagation of low-frequency convection in the tropical IO, there are two propagation paths that stimulate the ISO activities of the southwest monsoon over the bay of Bengal and tropical monsoon over the SCS, and the activities jointly affect the precipitation during main flood period in Guizhou eventually. There are three active phases of low-frequency convection during the main flood period of Guizhou, and the ISO in the IO key area and the SCS key area have three times of enhanced low-frequency convection in advance. By analyzing the impact of MJO activity trajectory on the regional heavy rainfall process in the main flood period of Guizhou, we found that characteristic of zonal eastward transmission of the ISO activity center intensity over the tropical Indian Ocean (the MJO activity center intensity) can be regarded as a good continuous forecast signal from 15 days to 3 days before the occurrence of heavy rainfall process in main flood period of Guizhou, and the best positive correlation are seen in the 9th day in advance. Determine the most similar period of the trajectories of MJO activity from the period of before (10 days in advance) the occurrence to the end of the process of heavy rainfall in Guizhou in the past year, and combine the results with the forecast period (11-30 days in the future) specified by the extended period forecast operation, we found that the trajectory and intensity of the MJO activity center trajectory have good indication significance for the trend forecast of the heavy rainfall process in Guizhou.

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白慧,向波,吳戰(zhàn)平,羅陽(yáng)歡. MJO活動(dòng)軌跡對(duì)貴州區(qū)域強(qiáng)降水過(guò)程延伸期預(yù)報(bào)的影響分析.氣象科學(xué),2022,42(2):193-203 BAI Hui, XIANG Bo, WU Zhanping, LUO Yanghuan. Extended-range forecast of the regional heavy rainfall process in Guizhou by studying MJO activity trajectory. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2022,42(2):193-203

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收稿日期:2019-12-05
最后修改日期:2020-05-06
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2022-05-31
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