El Niño衰減年西北太平洋熱帶氣旋活動 特征的差異性

doi:10.12306/2021jms.0040

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El Niño衰減年西北太平洋熱帶氣旋活動 特征的差異性
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                        10.12306/2021jms.0040
                    
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中圖分類號:P457.8
基金項目:國家重點研發(fā)計劃項目(2018YFC1507700);國家自然科學(xué)基金資助項目(41730961;41575083)

Diversity of tropical cyclone activity characteristics over the western North Pacific during El Niño decaying phase

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摘要:

El Niño衰減年西北太平洋熱帶氣旋(Tropical cyclone,TC)活動表現(xiàn)出多樣性,給TC活動的氣候預(yù)測帶來挑戰(zhàn)。采用美國聯(lián)合臺風(fēng)預(yù)警中心的熱帶氣旋最佳路徑數(shù)據(jù)和歐洲中期預(yù)報中心提供的ERA-5再分析資料,對1970—2018年的El Niño衰減年7—10月的西北太平洋TC生成頻數(shù)進行合成分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)其與氣候態(tài)沒有顯著的差異,但在單個年份,存在著較大的正、負異常。為此,將El Niño衰減年分為TC生成頻數(shù)偏少(負異常)和偏多(正異常)兩種情形,對比兩種情形的TC活動和大尺度環(huán)境要素特征。結(jié)果表明,TC生成頻數(shù)偏少的情形,TC生成頻數(shù)的異常減少主要發(fā)生在西北太平洋東部海域,即(15°~25°N,140°~150°E)和(5°~25°N,150°~170°E),與垂直風(fēng)切變增大、對流層中層相對濕度和低層絕對渦度減少有關(guān);TC生成頻數(shù)偏多的情形,TC生成頻數(shù)的異常增加主要發(fā)生在南海和菲律賓群島附近,即(15°~25°N,110°~120°E)和(5°~25°N,120°~130°E),對流層中層相對濕度增加的貢獻最大,其次是上升運動增強和絕對渦度增大;對比兩種情形發(fā)現(xiàn),TC生成頻數(shù)偏多的情形,廣東和福建沿岸的東南風(fēng)異常引導(dǎo)氣流有利于菲律賓群島附近生成的TC登陸中國大陸。

Abstract:

In the El Niño decaying years, the activities of Tropical Cyclone (TC) over the Northwest Pacific show diversity, which bring challenges to the climate prediction of TC activities. In this paper, the characteristics of TC activities over the Northwest Pacific were analyzed from 1970 to 2018 (from July to October) by using TC track data derived from the JTWC and ERA-5 reanalysis data provided by the ECMWF. No significant anomalies can be seen from the TC genesis frequency over the whole Northwest Pacific, but there are huge positive and negative anomalies in a single year. Therefore, according to TC genesis frequency, El Niño decaying years were divided into two conditions:less TC (negative anoma￣lies) and more TC (positive anomalies), and the characteristics of large-scale environmental variables in the two cases are compared. Results show that in the case of less TC, the TC genesis frequency was seen abnormally reduced, which mainly occurred in the eastern region of Northwest Pacific (15°-25°N,140°-150°E and 5°-25°N,150°-170°E). The phenomena were related to the reduction of relative humidity in the middle troposphere, the increasing in vertical wind shear and the decreasing in low-level absolute vorticity. In the case of more TC, the anomalous increase of TC genesis frequency mainly occurred near the South China Sea and the Philippine Islands (15°-25°N,110°-120°E and 5°-25°N,120°-130°E). The contribution of increasing of relative humidity the middle troposphere was the largest, followed by the increasing in relative vorticity and ascending motion. By comparing the two scenarios, it is found that in the case of more TC, the anomalous of Southeast guide wind along the coast of Guangdong and Fujian is favorable for the TC generation near the Philippines Islands to land in mainland China.

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鐘校堯,余錦華,歐立健,張旭煜. El Niño衰減年西北太平洋熱帶氣旋活動特征的差異性.氣象科學(xué),2022,42(2):204-212 ZHONG Xiaoyao, YU Jinhua, OU Lijian, ZHANG Xuyu. Diversity of tropical cyclone activity characteristics over the western North Pacific during El Niño decaying phase. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2022,42(2):204-212

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收稿日期:2021-01-13
最后修改日期:2021-05-28
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2022-05-31
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