丘陵地區(qū)降水誘發(fā)滑坡地質(zhì)災(zāi)害的閾值分析——以巴中市恩陽(yáng)區(qū)為例

doi:10.12306/2021jms.0026

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丘陵地區(qū)降水誘發(fā)滑坡地質(zhì)災(zāi)害的閾值分析——以巴中市恩陽(yáng)區(qū)為例
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                        10.12306/2021jms.0026
                    
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中圖分類號(hào):P694;P954
基金項(xiàng)目:國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目(41704105)

Threshold analysis of rainfall-induced landslide hazards in hilly area: case study of Enyang district, Bazhong city

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摘要:

利用降水閾值模型對(duì)典型丘陵地區(qū)的227個(gè)滑坡點(diǎn)進(jìn)行降水誘發(fā)滑坡地質(zhì)災(zāi)害的分析。結(jié)果表明:2009—2018年227例降水型滑坡中,降水引起當(dāng)日發(fā)生2起及2起以上滑坡事件的共143起滑坡,約占總滑坡起數(shù)的63%;降水引起當(dāng)日發(fā)生3起及3起以上滑坡事件的共99起,約占總滑坡起數(shù)的43%。因此,恩陽(yáng)區(qū)受降水影響的滑坡事件具有群發(fā)性特征。利用降雨和滑坡數(shù)據(jù)可以獲得恩陽(yáng)區(qū)降水誘發(fā)滑坡的降水強(qiáng)度—降水歷時(shí)閾值曲線和具有滑坡群發(fā)性特征的降水強(qiáng)度—降水歷時(shí)閾值曲線。此外,當(dāng)0 ＜D≤2時(shí),選擇常規(guī)降水閾值曲線模型進(jìn)行預(yù)警;當(dāng)D＞2時(shí),選擇群發(fā)性的降水閾值曲線進(jìn)行預(yù)警,以此得到組合模型;組合模型解決了常規(guī)的滑坡降水閾值曲線對(duì)降水是否誘發(fā)滑坡的預(yù)警空?qǐng)?bào)率較高,而群發(fā)性的滑坡降水閾值曲線的漏報(bào)率較高的問(wèn)題。

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The rainfall threshold model is used to analyze the 227 cases of geological disasters of rainfall-induced landslides in typical hilly areas in the purpose of providing a reference for rainfall threshold for studying the relationship between rainfall and landslides. The results show that among the 227 cases of rainfall-type landslides from 2009 to 2018, there are 143 cases and 99 cases with more than 2 and more than 3 landslides event induced by rainfall in the same day, accounting for about 63% and 43% of the total landslides events, respectively. Thus it can be concluded that landslides affected by rainfall in Enyang District have the characteristics of mass occurrence. The rainfall intensity-rainfall duration threshold curve of rainfall-induced landslides in Enyang District, as well as the rainfall intensity with landslide mass-rainfall duration threshold curve can be obtained through analysis. According to the characteristics of time, the accuracy of forecast of rainfall-induced landslide events is improved. When 0<D ≤ 2, the conventional rainfall threshold curve model can be selected for forecasting, while when D>2, the mass rainfall threshold curve is selected for early forecasting. This study can solve the problem that the conventional landslide rainfall threshold curve has a higher false alarm rate for whether rainfall induces landslides, and the problem that the mass landslide rainfall threshold curve has a higher false alarm rate.

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李俊杰,王衛(wèi)紅,冉茂瑩.丘陵地區(qū)降水誘發(fā)滑坡地質(zhì)災(zāi)害的閾值分析——以巴中市恩陽(yáng)區(qū)為例.氣象科學(xué),2022,42(2):279-284 LI Junjie, WANG Weihong, RAN Maoying. Threshold analysis of rainfall-induced landslide hazards in hilly area: case study of Enyang district, Bazhong city. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2022,42(2):279-284

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收稿日期:2020-10-29
最后修改日期:2021-02-03
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2022-05-31
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抽查舔水白紧大视频,冲喜娘子超甜哒激情五月,亚洲黄色图片偷拍网站,亚洲三级黄片免费播放,91在线观看喷潮红桃,日韩精品在线观看一区二区,久久久久久久久久久久黄色片子,日产精品99久久久久久久久,欧洲亚洲另类图片小说