多種空間檢驗(yàn)方法在不同分辨率模式降水預(yù)報(bào)評(píng)估中的應(yīng)用

doi:10.12306/2021jms.0055

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多種空間檢驗(yàn)方法在不同分辨率模式降水預(yù)報(bào)評(píng)估中的應(yīng)用
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                        10.12306/2021jms.0055
                    
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中圖分類(lèi)號(hào):P457.6
基金項(xiàng)目:國(guó)家重點(diǎn)研發(fā)計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(2018YFC1507604);國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目(41975124)

Application of multiple spatial verification methods to precipitation forecasts from different resolution models

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利用單一的客觀評(píng)估方法并不能有效揭示預(yù)報(bào)誤差來(lái)源。利用逐小時(shí)5 km格點(diǎn)融合降水產(chǎn)品,本研究使用了多種客觀評(píng)估方法綜合評(píng)估了南京大學(xué)2016年夏季汛期試驗(yàn)4 km與12 km WRF模式。整體上,兩種分辨率都能成功地預(yù)報(bào)主雨帶,4 km WRF在午后對(duì)流及復(fù)雜地形預(yù)報(bào)上更優(yōu)。比較了各類(lèi)客觀評(píng)估方法,鄰域法顯示4 km WRF預(yù)報(bào)準(zhǔn)確性更高,但對(duì)于強(qiáng)降水(≥13 mm·(6 h)^-1),兩種模式預(yù)報(bào)的空間誤差都較大。尺度分離法顯示,對(duì)于小尺度系統(tǒng),4 km WRF能較好再現(xiàn)對(duì)流但存在較大位置誤差,而12 km WRF則漏報(bào)。MODE法(Method for Object-based Diagnostic Evaluation)顯示4 km WRF在對(duì)象強(qiáng)度預(yù)報(bào)上更接近觀測(cè),但強(qiáng)度和范圍偏大,導(dǎo)致華南偏強(qiáng),而范圍偏小造成江淮偏弱,12 km WRF低估主要是漏報(bào)。不同評(píng)估方法能清晰展示4 km WRF和12 km WRF預(yù)報(bào)誤差的差異,為后續(xù)模式改進(jìn)提供了重要參考。

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A single objective evaluation method can not effectively reveal the source of forecast error. In this study, several objective evaluation methods were used to evaluate the precipitation forecasts of 4 km and 12 km WRF model running real-time at Nanjing University during summer period of 2016. The 5 km hourly gridded merged precipitation products were used as observation. In general, both 4 km and 12 km WRF model can successfully reproduce the main rainband. 4 km WRF performs better than 12 km WRF in the prediction of the afternoon convection and precipitation over complex terrain area. Results from different objective evaluation methods are compared. The neighborhood method shows that for light rains, 4 km WRF can maintain useful skill score up to smaller scales. But for heavy rains (≥ 13 mm·(6 h)^-1), the spatial errors of the two models are both large. The scale separation method shows that the 4 km WRF can reproduce the small-scale systems well but still has clear position errors. On the contrary, 12 km WRF just missed the small-scale convection. The Method for Object-based Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE) shows that the rainfall intensity forecasts of 4 km WRF are much closer to the observation than 12 km WRF. However, in South China, it overestimates the intensity and coverage area of the objects resulting the overestimation of precipitation amount in that region. In the Yangtze-Huaihe River, it underestimates the coverage area resulting the underestimation of precipitation amount in that region. On the contrary, the forecast bias of 12 km WRF is due to the failure in the prediction of the small-scale systems. Different evaluation methods can clearly show the difference of prediction errors between 4 km WRF and 12 km WRF, which provides an important reference for the subsequent model improvement.

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俞碧玉,朱科鋒.多種空間檢驗(yàn)方法在不同分辨率模式降水預(yù)報(bào)評(píng)估中的應(yīng)用.氣象科學(xué),2022,42(3):341-355 YU Biyu, ZHU Kefeng. Application of multiple spatial verification methods to precipitation forecasts from different resolution models. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2022,42(3):341-355

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收稿日期:2021-02-26
最后修改日期:2021-05-26
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2022-07-15
出版日期: 2022-06-25

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