一次長(zhǎng)三角地區(qū)颮線過(guò)程的數(shù)值預(yù)報(bào)分析

doi:10.12306/2021jms.0039

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一次長(zhǎng)三角地區(qū)颮線過(guò)程的數(shù)值預(yù)報(bào)分析
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                        10.12306/2021jms.0039
                    
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中圖分類號(hào):P435
基金項(xiàng)目:國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目(41475040);上海市科委專項(xiàng)(14231202400)

Analysis and numerical forecast research on a squall line in the Yangtze River Delta

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摘要:

2019年4月9日,長(zhǎng)三角地區(qū)發(fā)生了一次罕見(jiàn)的長(zhǎng)歷時(shí)強(qiáng)颮線天氣過(guò)程。在分析其天氣形勢(shì)背景和發(fā)展演變基礎(chǔ)上,利用新一代華東區(qū)域數(shù)值模式對(duì)此次過(guò)程進(jìn)行了預(yù)報(bào)分析,初步分析了其演變過(guò)程中的中尺度結(jié)構(gòu)特征。結(jié)果表明,此次颮線發(fā)生在高空槽前、低層強(qiáng)烈輻合抬升天氣背景下,強(qiáng)的垂直風(fēng)切變、冷空氣向南侵入與低層暖濕氣流疊加建立了強(qiáng)的對(duì)流不穩(wěn)定層結(jié),是颮線發(fā)生發(fā)展和長(zhǎng)時(shí)間維持的重要原因。數(shù)值模式成功模擬了颮線前部低層暖濕空氣上升和后部中層干冷空氣下沉這兩支入流,以及颮線過(guò)境時(shí)邊界層高度和大氣可降水量迅速下降,地面中尺度冷池向東南方向的傳播過(guò)程,冷池與對(duì)流風(fēng)暴的移動(dòng)速度基本一致,導(dǎo)致對(duì)流前部低層一直有風(fēng)場(chǎng)的切變輻合抬升,有助于對(duì)流維持并發(fā)展。

Abstract:

An unusually long-lasting severe squall line occurred in the Yangtze River Delta on April 9, 2019. Based on weather background and evolution analysis of the squall line, the new generation East China regional numerical model was used to predict and analyze the process, and the mesoscale structure characteristics in the evolution process were preliminarily studied. Results show that the squall line occurred in front of the high trough and under the background of strong convergence and uplift in the lower layer. Strong vertical wind shear, cold air intrusion to the south and warm, humid air flow in the lower layer superimposed to establish a strong convective unstable stratification, which is an important reason for the occurrence, development and long-term maintenance of the squall line. The numerical model successfully simulates the two streams of warm and humid air rising in the lower layer in front of the squall line and dry and cold air sinking in the middle layer in the rear, as well as the rapid decline of boundary layer height and atmospheric precipitable water during the passage of the squall line, and the propagation process of the ground mesoscale cold pool to the southeast. The moving speed of the cold pool is basically the same as that of the convective storm. It leads to the shear convergence and uplift of the wind field in the lower layer in front of the convection, which is helpful to the maintenance and development of the convection.

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王智,鄒蘭軍.一次長(zhǎng)三角地區(qū)颮線過(guò)程的數(shù)值預(yù)報(bào)分析.氣象科學(xué),2022,42(3):420-426 WANG Zhi, ZOU Lanjun. Analysis and numerical forecast research on a squall line in the Yangtze River Delta. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2022,42(3):420-426

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收稿日期:2020-12-17
最后修改日期:2021-04-28
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2022-07-15
出版日期: 2022-06-25

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