CMIP模式對冬季北半球大氣環(huán)流與青藏高原冬春季氣溫相關關系的模擬評估

doi:10.12306/2022jms.0038

首頁 > 過刊瀏覽>2022年第42卷第4期 >440-456. DOI:10.12306/2022jms.0038

CMIP模式對冬季北半球大氣環(huán)流與青藏高原冬春季氣溫相關關系的模擬評估
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                        10.12306/2022jms.0038
                    
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中圖分類號:P467
基金項目:中國科學院戰(zhàn)略性先導科技專項(A類)(XDA20100308); 國家自然科學基金資助項目(41621005)

Assessment of CMIP models in simulating the relationship between wintertime atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere and the winter-spring temperature over the Tibetan Plateau

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本文評估了36個CMIP5模式和39個CMIP6模式對近期觀測中揭示的北半球冬季大氣環(huán)流與高原冬春氣溫之間的相關關系的模擬能力。利用最大協(xié)方差(MCA)分析方法,計算并比較了觀測和模式中冬季北半球200 hPa位勢高度場與同后期青藏高原近地面氣溫的耦合關系。整體而言,大部分CMIP模式能夠模擬出顯著的冬季北半球大氣環(huán)流與青藏高原氣溫之間的相關關系,且CMIP6模式模擬相關特征和作用機制的能力較CMIP5均有所提升。與觀測相比,歷史情景下36個CMIP5模式中有26個能夠模擬出顯著的大氣環(huán)流與同后期高原氣溫之間的相關關系,其中對于相關的位勢高度場空間模態(tài)的模擬明顯好于對高原氣溫異常場空間模態(tài)的模擬。同情景下39個CMIP6模式中有37個能模擬出顯著相關關系,且CMIP6模式更能模擬出觀測中MCA模態(tài)的位勢高度場上北極濤動(AO)和西太平洋遙相關型(WP)反相位疊加的大氣環(huán)流特征。在對MCA模態(tài)時間變率的模擬上,大部分模式都能重現(xiàn)青藏高原整體變暖的趨勢,部分模式能夠模擬出觀測中位勢高度場時間主成分的年際變率,并且CMIP6表現(xiàn)要優(yōu)于CMIP5。對耦合環(huán)流型的動力診斷顯示,相比CMIP5模式,CMIP6中有更多模式可以模擬出極地—高原之間的遙相關波列,且對波列結構的模擬更完整。

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In this study, the historical runs by 36 CMIP5 models and 39 CMIP6 models were assessed to investigate how CMIP models can simulate such relationship between the winter circulation and spring TP surface temperature. The Maximum Covariance Analysis(MCA) was applied to the NH geopotential height in winter and the surface temperature over Tibetan Plateau(TP) in the following months in model simulations. In general, most CMIP models are capable of simulating the linkage between Northern Hemisphere(NH) circulation and TP temperature, with the performance of CMIP6 models evidently improved. Among the 36 CMIP5 and 39 CMIP6 models, 26 and 37 of them, respectively, can reproduce the significant lead-lag correlations between the circulation and the TP temperature. CMIP6 models show improved performance in capturing the characteristics of circulations, especially in reproducing patterns with an out-of-phase combination of Arctic Oscillation and West Pacific teleconnection pattern in the MCA mode. For temporal variability, almost all models can simulate the warming trend over the TP, but the spatial pattern varies among models. In terms of simulating interannual variability, CMIP6 performs better than CMIP5 as well. The results also show that more CMIP6 models can simulate the Arctic-Tibetan wave trains that favor the occurrence of TP snow in winter, which can further affect the spring surface temperature in the TP.

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潘延,張洋,李舒婷. CMIP模式對冬季北半球大氣環(huán)流與青藏高原冬春季氣溫相關關系的模擬評估.氣象科學,2022,42(4):440-456 PAN Yan, ZHANG Yang, LI Shu-ting. Assessment of CMIP models in simulating the relationship between wintertime atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere and the winter-spring temperature over the Tibetan Plateau. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2022,42(4):440-456

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收稿日期:2022-03-29
最后修改日期:2022-05-05
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2022-10-20
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