針對(duì)江蘇省氣溫和降水的高分辨率降尺度模擬及預(yù)估

doi:10.12306/2021jms.0001

首頁(yè) > 過刊瀏覽>2022年第42卷第4期 >481-494. DOI:10.12306/2021jms.0001

針對(duì)江蘇省氣溫和降水的高分辨率降尺度模擬及預(yù)估
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                        10.12306/2021jms.0001
                    
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中圖分類號(hào):P467
基金項(xiàng)目:江蘇省碳達(dá)峰碳中和科技創(chuàng)新專項(xiàng)(BE2022612); 江蘇省氣象局重點(diǎn)科研項(xiàng)目(KZ202206);江蘇省氣象局青年基金項(xiàng)目(KQ201717)

Dynamical downscaling and projection of surface air temperature and precipitation in Jiangsu Province with high resolution

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本文利用WRF模式,以25 km分辨率數(shù)值模擬結(jié)果作為驅(qū)動(dòng)場(chǎng),對(duì)江蘇省現(xiàn)代和未來15 a的氣候進(jìn)行5 km高分辨率降尺度模擬及預(yù)估。結(jié)果顯示,高分辨率降尺度模擬對(duì)其驅(qū)動(dòng)場(chǎng)具有顯著的提高,降水的負(fù)偏差和氣溫冷偏差均有所降低,其模擬的降水與氣溫概率分布與觀測(cè)更為接近;對(duì)于極端指數(shù),WRF模式能夠模擬出其基本分布,除連續(xù)濕潤(rùn)日數(shù)CWD和極端高溫TXx之外,高分辨率模擬對(duì)其他指數(shù)的模擬均有顯著的提升。在RCP8.5排放情景下對(duì)未來氣候變化的預(yù)估表明,江蘇降水在夏季以減少為主,在春季則以增加為主,全年平均降水存在減少趨勢(shì);未來0~1 mm·d^-1的微弱降水發(fā)生概率將增加,小雨、中到大雨以及暴雨發(fā)生的概率均降低,而暴雨強(qiáng)度的增強(qiáng)導(dǎo)致極端強(qiáng)降水R95顯著增加;氣溫25℃以上高溫發(fā)生的概率在未來有所增加,而0℃以下的低溫發(fā)生概率減小,從而導(dǎo)致暖持續(xù)日數(shù)顯著增加,而冷持續(xù)日數(shù)減小,另外,極端高溫和極端低溫都有顯著的升高。

Abstract:

Driven by the numerical simulation output with 25 km resolution, the WRF model was utilized to perform dynamical downscaling for the present climate and the future climate projection in Jiangsu Province with a high resolution of 5 km, covering 15-years for both periods.Resultsindicate that, the high resolution downscaling significantly outperforms the driving fields, with the negative bias of precipitation and cold bias of temperature both reduced. It also produces more realistic probability distributions for both precipitation and temperature. As for the climate extremes, the WRF model well produces both precipitation and temperature indices, and the high resolution downscaling shows better skill for all the indices except CWD(Consecutive Wet Days) and TXx(max Tmax). The projection under the RCP8.5 scenario shows that, the precipitation would decrease in summer and increase in spring, with decrease for annual mean. The drizzle rain with intensity of 0-1 mm·d^-1 would occur more frequently in the future, while the probability of moderate to heavy rainfall would decrease. The more intensive storm would result in a significant increase of rainfall in very wet days(R95). In the future, the probability of high temperature above 25 ℃ would be higher while that below 0 ℃ would be lower, resulting in longer Warm Spell Duration Indicator(WSDI) while shorter Cold Spell Duration Indicator(CSDI). In addition, the extreme high and low temperature are both projected to be higher.

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惠品宏,陳燕,楊杰,韋芬芬,魯明欣宇.針對(duì)江蘇省氣溫和降水的高分辨率降尺度模擬及預(yù)估.氣象科學(xué),2022,42(4):481-494 HUI Pin-hong, CHEN Yan, YANG Jie, WEI Fen-fen, LU Ming-xin-yu. Dynamical downscaling and projection of surface air temperature and precipitation in Jiangsu Province with high resolution. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2022,42(4):481-494

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收稿日期:2019-10-11
最后修改日期:2019-10-11
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2022-10-20
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