2020年與1998年梅汛期洪澇的異常大氣環(huán)流及相關(guān)海表溫度強迫的差異性分析

doi:10.12306/2021jms.0015

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2020年與1998年梅汛期洪澇的異常大氣環(huán)流及相關(guān)海表溫度強迫的差異性分析
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                        10.12306/2021jms.0015
                    
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中圖分類號:P458.121
基金項目:國家重點研發(fā)計劃項目(2017YFC1502304); 國家自然科學(xué)基金資助項目(40805048)

Differences in the associated atmospheric circulation and SST anomalies for the floods during Meiyu season in 2020 and 1998

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2020年梅汛期長江流域強降雨范圍超越1998年,且雨量中心偏北,這與兩年的異常大氣環(huán)流和海表溫度強迫差異有密切聯(lián)系。與1998年相比,2020年西北太平洋異常反氣旋(WNPAC)偏北偏強,中心偏東,東亞雙阻形勢偏弱,使得副高北抬加強,北側(cè)的西南氣流亦偏北偏強,中高緯反氣旋和氣旋對的存在使得30°N以北為異常東北風(fēng)控制,冷空氣偏強,長江流域上空的水汽含量亦偏多,這些環(huán)流差異直接導(dǎo)致2020年降水較1998年偏多且中心偏北。這兩年在對流層中層都存在大西洋—西太平洋的波列,但2020年波列偏南,有利于東亞反氣旋和氣旋對的維持以及WNPAC和副高的北抬加強,而1998年波列偏北且偏強,有利于雙阻形勢的穩(wěn)定。2019/2020年(1997/1998年)冬季發(fā)生中部型(東部型)El Niño事件,前者強迫的6—7月WNPAC北界位置較后者偏北;同時2019/2020年印度洋—太平洋中部一致增暖,使得WNPAC加強,中心東移。2020年(1998年)同期處在北大西洋強(弱)負三極子模態(tài),可能是兩年中高緯度環(huán)流形勢差異的主要原因之一。2020年(1998年)南太平洋中部暖海溫異常(冷異常)能加強(減弱)越赤道氣流,有利于WNPAC偏東偏北(偏西偏南)和水汽輸送加強(減弱)。綜上,2020年與1998年梅汛期降水差異可能由多洋盆海溫強迫協(xié)同作用所致。

Abstract:

The area of heavy rainfall in the Yangtze River basin during the Meiyu period in 2020 was larger than that in 1998, and the rainfall center was to the north, which was closely related to the two-year abnormal atmospheric circulation and the forcing difference of Sea Surface Temperature(SST). Compared with 1998, the Northwest Pacific Anomaly Anticyclone(WNPAC) at low latitudes in 2020 was stronger and northward with the center eastward, and East Asia's dual resistance was relatively weak, which strengthened the northward uplift of the subtropical high and the southwest airflow on the north side. The existence of the East Asian anticyclone and cyclone pair in high latitude made the north of 30°N controlled by the abnormal northeast wind, and the cold air in the south was also stronger. The water vapor content over the Yangtze River basin was also higher. These circulation differences directly led to more precipitation in 2020 than in 1998 and a northerly center. The Atlantic-West Pacific wave train existed in the middle troposphere for two years, but the wave train was southerly in 2020, which was beneficial to the maintenance of the East Asian anticyclone and cyclone pair and the strengthening of WNPAC and the subtropical high. In 1998, the wave train was northerly and stronger, which was conducive to the stability of the dual blocking pattern. 2019/2020(1997/1998) experienced the central type(eastern type) El Niño event. The former was beneficial to norther WNPAC from June to July than the latter. At the same time, there was a consistent warming between the Indian Ocean and the central Pacific Ocean in 2019/2020, which strengthened WNPAC, and the center shift to the east. In the same period of 2020/1998, there were strong(weak) negative tripole SST over the North Atlantic, which might be one of the main reasons for the difference of the atmospheric circulation anomalies at mid-high latitudes. In 2020(1998), the warm sea surface temperature anomaly(cold anomaly) in the central South Pacific can strengthen(weaken) the cross equatorial flow, which is conducive to WNPAC east and north(west and south)and strengthened(weakened) water vapor transport. In summary, the difference in precipitation during the Meiyu period between 2020 and 1998 might be caused by the synergistic effect of multi-oceanic sea temperature forcing.

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錢卓蕾,錢月平,馬潔華.2020年與1998年梅汛期洪澇的異常大氣環(huán)流及相關(guān)海表溫度強迫的差異性分析.氣象科學(xué),2022,42(4):506-516 QIAN Zhuo-lei, QIAN Yue-ping, MA Jie-hua. Differences in the associated atmospheric circulation and SST anomalies for the floods during Meiyu season in 2020 and 1998. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2022,42(4):506-516

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收稿日期:2020-09-26
最后修改日期:2020-12-30
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2022-10-20
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