2011—2019年影響安徽致暴江淮氣旋統(tǒng)計(jì)分析

doi:10.12306/2021jms.0084

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2011—2019年影響安徽致暴江淮氣旋統(tǒng)計(jì)分析
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                        10.12306/2021jms.0084
                    
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中圖分類號(hào):P447;P468.024
基金項(xiàng)目:中國(guó)氣象局預(yù)報(bào)員專項(xiàng)資助項(xiàng)目(CMAYBY2020-059)

Statistical analysis of the violent Jianghuai cyclones affecting Anhui from 2011 to 2019

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摘要:

采用安徽國(guó)家基本站逐小時(shí)降水及歐洲ERA5再分析資料,統(tǒng)計(jì)分析了2011—2019年影響安徽致暴江淮氣旋氣候概況、雨區(qū)、路徑及環(huán)流場(chǎng)特征。結(jié)果表明,影響安徽致暴江淮氣旋多發(fā)生于湖北、湖南等地,約占同期總氣旋數(shù)的18.9%,年均2.8次;降水大值中心主要位于大別山南麓至皖南山區(qū)西南一帶,高海拔山區(qū)尤其明顯。根據(jù)斜旋轉(zhuǎn)T模態(tài)主成分客觀分析法,將影響安徽致暴江淮氣旋主要?jiǎng)澐譃楦邏杭剐?SP1型)、高空槽型(SP2型)、暖式切變型(SP3型);其中,SP1型致暴天氣過(guò)程最多,占40%,SP2型次之,占36%,SP3型占20%。高壓脊型(SP1型)江淮氣旋一般偏南東移,安徽以西有一高壓脊,高壓脊東側(cè)有顯著的經(jīng)向環(huán)流,中高層有明顯干侵入過(guò)程,低層暖濕舌伸向皖南山區(qū),暖濕不穩(wěn)定層結(jié)的配置有利于皖南山區(qū)對(duì)流性強(qiáng)降水的產(chǎn)生;高空槽型(SP2型)江淮氣旋一般向偏東方向移動(dòng),安徽中北部中高層為東北—西南向高空槽,低層表現(xiàn)為冷鋒南侵,與南方暖濕氣流匯合于安徽長(zhǎng)江流域,導(dǎo)致雨區(qū)分布于安徽長(zhǎng)江一線;暖式切變型(SP3型)江淮氣旋一般偏北東移,低渦位于安徽以西,西南強(qiáng)盛的暖濕氣流經(jīng)大別山區(qū)向東北方輸送,整層均為大濕區(qū),低層有較強(qiáng)的輻合抬升,降水效率高,雨區(qū)主要分布于大別山區(qū),屬于暖區(qū)暴雨或強(qiáng)降水類型。

Abstract:

By using the hourly precipitation data from the Anhui National Basic Station and the European ERA5 reanalysis data, the climate profile, rain area, path and circulation field characteristics of the violent Jianghuai cyclones that affected Anhui from 2011 to 2019 were statistically analyzed.Resultsshow that most of the violent Jianghuai cyclones that affect Anhui occur in Hubei, Hunan and other places, accounting for about 18.9% of the total number of cyclones in the same period, with an average of 2.8 times per year. May to July is a prone period, with extreme rain intensity and cumulative precipitation being easy. Occurs in July; the center of high rainfall is located from the southern foot of the Dabie Mountains to the southwestern part of the southern Anhui mountainous area, especially in high-altitude mountainous areas. According to the principal component objective analysis method of the oblique rotation T mode, the cyclone that affects Anhui's Yangtze River and Huaihe River is divided into high pressure ridge type(SP1 type), north trough and south vortex type(SP2 type), and warm shear type(SP3 type); among them, SP1 type weather process is the most, accounting for 40%, SP2 type is the second, accounting for 36%, and SP3 type accounts for 20%. The high pressure ridge type(SP1) Jianghuai cyclone generally moves southward and eastward, there is a high pressure ridge in the west of Anhui, there is a significant meridional circulation in the east of the high pressure ridge, there is an obvious dry intrusion process in the middle and high levels, the warm and wet tongue in the lower level extends to the mountain area of southern Anhui, and the configuration of warm and wet unstable stratification is conducive to the generation of convective heavy precipitation in the mountain area of southern Anhui. The high trough type(SP2 type) Jianghuai cyclone generally moves to the East. The middle and upper layers in the central and northern part of Anhui are northeast southwest high trough, and the lower layer is characterized by the southward invasion of cold front, which converges with the warm and humid air flow in the south in the Yangtze River Basin of Anhui, resulting in the distribution of rain areas in the first line of the Yangtze River in Anhui. The warm shear type(SP3 type) Jianghuai cyclone generally moves northward and eastward, and the low vortex is located in the west of Anhui. The strong warm moisture in the southwest flows through the Dabie Mountains to the northeast. The whole layer is a large wet area. The low layer has strong convergence and uplift, and the precipitation efficiency is high. The rain area is mainly distributed in the Dabie Mountains, belonging to the type of rainstorm or heavy precipitation in the warm area.

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吳照憲,吳晶晶,盧雄偉,王惠,劉玉林.2011—2019年影響安徽致暴江淮氣旋統(tǒng)計(jì)分析.氣象科學(xué),2022,42(4):528-538 WU Zhao-xian, WU Jing-jing, LU Xiong-wei, WANG Hui, LIU Yu-lin. Statistical analysis of the violent Jianghuai cyclones affecting Anhui from 2011 to 2019. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2022,42(4):528-538

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收稿日期:2021-08-13
最后修改日期:2021-09-29
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2022-10-20
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