2019年江蘇梅汛期一次強(qiáng)對流成因分析

doi:10.12306/2022jms.0031

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2019年江蘇梅汛期一次強(qiáng)對流成因分析
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                        10.12306/2022jms.0031
                    
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中圖分類號:P458.2
基金項目:中國氣象局預(yù)報員專項(CMAYBY2020-049);江蘇省氣象局科研項目(KZ202008);上海市科委科技項目(21002410200)

Analysis on the causes of a strong convective weather during Meiyu period over Jiangsu in 2019

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利用FNL資料以及單、雙偏振多普勒天氣雷達(dá)資料,分析了2019年7月6日發(fā)生在江蘇的一次自北向南罕見的伴有冰雹、雷暴大風(fēng)和短時強(qiáng)降水的大范圍強(qiáng)對流天氣過程。結(jié)果表明:江蘇上空垂直方向干冷空氣疊加在暖濕氣流之上,600 hPa以下存在明顯的對流不穩(wěn)定,強(qiáng)烈的深層垂直風(fēng)切變提供動力不穩(wěn)定條件。大的對流有效位能、強(qiáng)烈的深層垂直風(fēng)切、合適的0 ℃和-20 ℃層高度利于大冰雹產(chǎn)生。強(qiáng)對流發(fā)生過程中,冰雹云回波強(qiáng)度普遍在50 dBZ以上,頂高超過10 km,三體散射特征明顯,同時存在氣旋式輻合、回波懸垂等特征。雙線偏振雷達(dá)各偏振參量表現(xiàn)出明顯的冰雹云特征,下?lián)舯┝靼l(fā)生時低層速度圖上出現(xiàn)強(qiáng)輻散區(qū),預(yù)示著下?lián)舯┝魈鞖獾陌l(fā)生。隨著Z_H的增大,K_DP值也有所增大,表明降水粒子尺寸增加,偏振雷達(dá)回波在水平和垂直方向的相位變化也增加,當(dāng)回波強(qiáng)度超過45 dBZ時,83.2%的K_DP在1.5 (°)·km^-1以上,CC值也超過0.97,利于強(qiáng)降水發(fā)生。

Abstract:

A rare large-scale severe convective weather with hail, thunderstorms, strong winds and short-term heavy precipitation from north to south in Jiangsu on July 6, 2019 was analyzed based on FNL data, single and dual polarization Doppler weather radar. The results show that dry and cold air is superimposed on the warm and humid air flow over Jiangsu, leading to significant convective instability below 600 hPa. Meanwhile the strong deep vertical wind shear provides dynamic instability conditions. The abundant CAPE, strong vertical wind shear, and suitable altitudes of 0 ℃ and -20 ℃ layer are favorable for the generation of heavy hails. During the process of strong convection, the echo intensity of hail cloud is generally above 50 dBZ and the top height exceeds 10 km. Besides, other identical characteristics such as three body scattering, cyclone convergence, echo suspension and storm top divergence can also be observed. The polarization parameters of dual polarization radar features characteristics of hail cloud. A strong divergence area appears on the low-level velocity map when the downburst occurs, indicating the occurrence of downburst weather. K_DP value increases with the increase of the Z_H value, indicating increasing size of rainfall droplets and the increase of phase change of horizontal and vertical polarization radar echoes. It is favorable for the occurence of heavy precipitation when the echo intensity exceeds 45 dBZ, 83.2% of K_DP exceeds 1.5 (°)·km^-1 and CC value exceeds 0.97.

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曹舒婭,何琰,孫偉,殷昊翔.2019年江蘇梅汛期一次強(qiáng)對流成因分析.氣象科學(xué),2022,42(5):602-609 CAO Shuya, HE Yan, SUN Wei, YIN Haoxiang. Analysis on the causes of a strong convective weather during Meiyu period over Jiangsu in 2019. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2022,42(5):602-609

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收稿日期:2022-01-29
最后修改日期:2022-03-24
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2022-11-03
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