CFSv2對2018年浙江梅雨降水 多尺度預(yù)測的性能評估

doi:10.12306/2021jms.0036

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CFSv2對2018年浙江梅雨降水 多尺度預(yù)測的性能評估
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                        10.12306/2021jms.0036
                    
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中圖分類號:P456.3;P456.7
基金項(xiàng)目:中國氣象局預(yù)報(bào)員專項(xiàng)項(xiàng)目(CMAYBY2019-048);浙江省基礎(chǔ)公益研究計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(LGF19D050001);國家重點(diǎn)研發(fā)計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(2018YFC1507605;2018YFC1505601)

Assessment of multi-scale forecast skill of CFSv2 for Meiyu precipitation over Zhejiang in 2018

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從梅雨預(yù)測的業(yè)務(wù)需求出發(fā),系統(tǒng)開展了CFSv2模式對2018年浙江梅雨期降水預(yù)報(bào)能力的多時間尺度評估。結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)3月1日—5月31日的起報(bào)結(jié)果整體上未能較準(zhǔn)確地預(yù)測6月浙江大部降水偏少的趨勢、僅5月31日的預(yù)測結(jié)果與實(shí)況相符;在延伸期尺度上,CFSv2預(yù)測的梅雨期總降水量較實(shí)況偏少30%左右;基于相關(guān)系數(shù)、均方根誤差和新定義的綜合預(yù)報(bào)技巧指數(shù)等指標(biāo)分析模式的延伸期預(yù)報(bào)性能,發(fā)現(xiàn)對梅雨期總降水量、逐日區(qū)域平均降水量和逐日全省各站降水量的預(yù)報(bào)技巧有限,對浙江梅雨區(qū)的預(yù)報(bào)水平總體高于浙江全省。評估結(jié)果表明CFSv2預(yù)報(bào)產(chǎn)品表現(xiàn)出顯著的系統(tǒng)性干偏差;在延伸期尺度上,隨著預(yù)報(bào)時效的縮短,預(yù)報(bào)效果并非逐步提升、而是客觀存在一個最佳預(yù)報(bào)時效,各起報(bào)日也分別對應(yīng)著不同的最優(yōu)預(yù)報(bào)時段,整體而言梅雨降水的延伸期預(yù)測可能對初值并不敏感。

Abstract:

Considering the diverse operational need of Meiyu prediction, evaluation of multi-scale forecast skill of CFSv2 for Zhejiang Meiyu precipitation in 2018 was systematically conducted. Despite the forecast results on May 31, which is consistent with the observation, the initial forecast results from March 1 to May 31 could not accurately capture the trend of less precipitation in most regions of Zhejiang in June generally. On the extended-range (ER) scale, the total precipitation predicted by CFSv2 during Meiyu period exhibited approximately 30% less than observation. Based on the correlation coefficient, root mean square error and newly defined integrated forecast skill index, the forecast performance of CFSv2 on ER scale was comprehensively evaluated. The results showed that the forecast skills for total precipitation, daily regional-mean precipitation and daily stational precipitation are very limited during Meiyu period, and the forecast results for Meiyu region in Zhejiang were slightly better than for the entire Zhejiang. The evaluation results indicated that CFSv2 forecast products of Zhejiang show significant systematic bias. On the ER scale, with the decrease of forecast time scale, the improvement of forecast skill was not noticeable, and instead there is an optimal forecast time scale. Also, during the full forecasted period for each ensemble, the most skillful time-interval was commonly not the nearest time frame. To sum up, the CFSv2 forecast for Meiyu precipitation on the ER scale may not be sensitive to the initial field.

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馬浩,于翡,葛敬文,肖晶晶,高大偉. CFSv2對2018年浙江梅雨降水多尺度預(yù)測的性能評估.氣象科學(xué),2022,42(5):690-702 MA Hao, YU Fei, GE Jingwen, XIAO Jingjing, GAO Dawei. Assessment of multi-scale forecast skill of CFSv2 for Meiyu precipitation over Zhejiang in 2018. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2022,42(5):690-702

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收稿日期:2020-07-18
最后修改日期:2021-02-19
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2022-11-03
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