南大4km預(yù)報系統(tǒng)對新疆夏季降水預(yù)報的評估

doi:10.12306/2021jms.0068

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南大4km預(yù)報系統(tǒng)對新疆夏季降水預(yù)報的評估
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                        10.12306/2021jms.0068
                    
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中圖分類號:P457.6
基金項目:國家重點研發(fā)計劃項目(2018YFC1507103);國家自然科學(xué)基金資助項目(41705032)

Evaluation of precipitation forecasts from NJU 4 km forecasting system in Xinjiang during summer

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南大4 km預(yù)報系統(tǒng)(WRF_NJU)是南京大學(xué)自2013年起每年夏季每日兩次對中國地區(qū)進行的4 km分辨率的48 h實時預(yù)報。將該系統(tǒng)、歐洲中期天氣預(yù)報中心(EC)、中國氣象局(CMA)和日本氣象廳(JMA)在2016—2018年夏季6—8月對新疆北疆和南疆地區(qū)降水的預(yù)報與自動站觀測資料進行對比分析。結(jié)果表明:Gilbert技巧評分(GSS)一般EC最高,WRF_NJU次之,JMA最低?？臻g上,EC在南、北疆的預(yù)報都最接近觀測,WRF_NJU預(yù)報降水平均偏低,CMA和JMA明顯偏高。WRF_NJU預(yù)報降水的日變化趨勢與觀測一致,峰值時段基本相同,稍有1~2 h偏差。量級上總體偏高,在峰值時段尤為明顯。降水過程發(fā)展方面,WRF_NJU對大多數(shù)降水過程模擬效果較好。通過個例分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)高空急流和低層水汽輸送的預(yù)報效果直接影響著降水的預(yù)報效果。

Abstract:

The NJU 4 km forecasting system (WRF_NJU) produce 48 h real-time forecasts at a 4 km grid spacing over China twice daily for the summer seasons at Nanjing University since 2013. The precipitation forecast from June to August in the summer of 2016-2018 in North and South Xinjiang from this model, the European Center for medium range weather forecast (EC), China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)were compared with the observational data of automatic weather stations. Results show that: generally, Gilbert Skill Score (GSS) of EC is the highest, WRF_NJU is second and JMA is the lowest. In terms of spatial distribution, the forecast in North and South Xinjiang from EC is the closest to observation, and the average precipitation forecast from WRF_NJU is lower, while CMA and JMA are obviously higher. The diurnal variations of precipitation forecast from WRF_NJU is consistent with the observed variations. The peak period is basically consistent, with a slight deviation of 1-2 hours. Forecast is generally higher than observation, especially in peak period. In the aspect of precipitation episodes and propagation, WRF_NJU can simulate most precipitation processes well. After studying selected cases, it is found that the precipitation forecast is directly affected by the forecast of upper-level jet stream and lower-level water vapor transport.

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許睿,明杰.南大4km預(yù)報系統(tǒng)對新疆夏季降水預(yù)報的評估.氣象科學(xué),2022,42(6):804-815 XU Rui, MING Jie. Evaluation of precipitation forecasts from NJU 4 km forecasting system in Xinjiang during summer. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2022,42(6):804-815

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收稿日期:2021-03-02
最后修改日期:2021-07-28
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2023-03-03
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