深對(duì)流系統(tǒng)中初始誤差增長和傳播的熱動(dòng)力機(jī)制

doi:10.12306/2022jms.0071

首頁 > 過刊瀏覽>2022年第42卷第6期 >816-824. DOI:10.12306/2022jms.0071

深對(duì)流系統(tǒng)中初始誤差增長和傳播的熱動(dòng)力機(jī)制
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                        10.12306/2022jms.0071
                    
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中圖分類號(hào):P456
基金項(xiàng)目:2021年度中國氣象局/河南省農(nóng)業(yè)氣象保障與應(yīng)用技術(shù)重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室應(yīng)用技術(shù)研究基金(KQ202113);國家自然科學(xué)基金重點(diǎn)資助項(xiàng)目(41430427)

Thermal dynamics mechanism for growth and propagation of initial perturbation in deep convective system

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摘要:

利用WRF模式模擬一個(gè)典型的超級(jí)單體風(fēng)暴,揭示了深對(duì)流系統(tǒng)中初始誤差增長和傳播的熱動(dòng)力機(jī)制,討論了系統(tǒng)的高度非線性作用和可預(yù)報(bào)性等問題。結(jié)果表明:影響深對(duì)流系統(tǒng)發(fā)展強(qiáng)度的不穩(wěn)定能量和潛熱釋放是影響誤差增長和空間分布的主要因素;誤差增長主要集中在對(duì)流區(qū),對(duì)流區(qū)域外的初始擾動(dòng)有向?qū)α鲄^(qū)域傳播的趨勢(shì),并可在對(duì)流區(qū)域內(nèi)迅速增長。隨著對(duì)流系統(tǒng)的強(qiáng)烈發(fā)展,量級(jí)為O(10^-2)的初始擾動(dòng)在210 min時(shí)即可達(dá)到量級(jí)O(10⁰),反映了系統(tǒng)高度的非線性作用和單一確定性預(yù)報(bào)顯著的局限性。另外還發(fā)現(xiàn),初始擾動(dòng)對(duì)的相關(guān)性迅速增加,這將導(dǎo)致集合離散度偏低,給集合預(yù)報(bào)捕獲極端天氣的能力設(shè)置了障礙。誤差的傳播主要以聲波和重力波兩種波動(dòng)形式傳播。聲波主要表現(xiàn)在積分初期,能量較小。重力波則能夠在對(duì)流系統(tǒng)以外的區(qū)域激發(fā)新的對(duì)流中心(目前這種誤差是不可預(yù)報(bào)的),進(jìn)而限制了系統(tǒng)的可預(yù)報(bào)性。

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A supercell storm is simulated by using WRF model to study the growth and propagation of initial perturbation in deep convective system and discuss the predictability of convective system. Results suggest that the instability energy and latent heat release of deep convective system affect the growth and spatial distribution of perturbation which tends to spread towards the moist convection area. The convection system is highly nonlinear and the weather prediction is subject to limitations in term of initial perturbations, which grow rapidly up to O(10⁰) from O(10^-2) in 210 minutes with the development of convection. The correlation of initial perturbations increases sharply as well which is responsible for the low ensemble spread and reduces the ability to predict extreme weather. In addition, it's been found that the error propagation is related to sound wave and gravity wave which are dominating at the initial and medium-term, respectively. The energy of sound wave is negligible in magnitude. However, gravity wave is able to bring about new convection in other areas. The triggered convection is unpredictable which limits the predictability of the system.

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楊婷,高峰.深對(duì)流系統(tǒng)中初始誤差增長和傳播的熱動(dòng)力機(jī)制.氣象科學(xué),2022,42(6):816-824 YANG Ting, GAO Feng. Thermal dynamics mechanism for growth and propagation of initial perturbation in deep convective system. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2022,42(6):816-824

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收稿日期:2022-03-28
最后修改日期:2022-07-16
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2023-03-03
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