極端天氣預(yù)報(bào)指數(shù)和集合異常預(yù)報(bào)法在浙江臺(tái)風(fēng)和梅雨暴雨預(yù)報(bào)中的應(yīng)用

doi:10.12306/2022jms.0009

首頁 > 過刊瀏覽>2023年第43卷第1期 >25-35. DOI:10.12306/2022jms.0009

極端天氣預(yù)報(bào)指數(shù)和集合異常預(yù)報(bào)法在浙江臺(tái)風(fēng)和梅雨暴雨預(yù)報(bào)中的應(yīng)用
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                        10.12306/2022jms.0009
                    
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中圖分類號(hào):P456
基金項(xiàng)目:浙江省氣象科技計(jì)劃重點(diǎn)資助項(xiàng)目(2020ZD01);浙江省自然科學(xué)基金聯(lián)合資助項(xiàng)目(LZJMD23D050001;LZJM23D050005);浙江省氣象局智能網(wǎng)格預(yù)報(bào)重點(diǎn)創(chuàng)新團(tuán)隊(duì)

Application of precipitation extreme forecast index and ensemble anomaly forecasting approach on typhoon and Meiyu rainstorm forecast in Zhejiang Province

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利用2016—2021年ECMWF集合預(yù)報(bào),評(píng)估了極端天氣指數(shù)EFI (Extreme Forecast Index)、尾偏移指數(shù)SOT ("Shift of Tail" index)以及集合異常預(yù)報(bào)法在浙江臺(tái)風(fēng)和梅雨暴雨預(yù)報(bào)中的應(yīng)用效果。通過研究極端天氣預(yù)報(bào)指數(shù)對(duì)浙江臺(tái)風(fēng)和梅雨暴雨的最優(yōu)預(yù)報(bào)閾值,發(fā)現(xiàn)梅雨暴雨閾值比臺(tái)風(fēng)暴雨明顯偏小,且隨預(yù)報(bào)時(shí)效增加減小速度偏慢。最優(yōu)閾值預(yù)報(bào)相比確定性模式預(yù)報(bào),在臺(tái)風(fēng)和梅雨暴雨預(yù)報(bào)檢驗(yàn)中體現(xiàn)出更好的穩(wěn)定性、提前性和準(zhǔn)確性。進(jìn)一步研究發(fā)現(xiàn),通過區(qū)分天氣類型確定的最優(yōu)預(yù)報(bào)閾值,可作為臺(tái)風(fēng)和梅雨暴雨落區(qū)預(yù)報(bào)的參考依據(jù)。925 hPa水汽通量散度的集合異常度對(duì)浙江臺(tái)風(fēng)暴雨的落區(qū)和強(qiáng)度變化有較好的預(yù)報(bào)效果,850 hPa渦度和700 hPa垂直速度的集合異常度可以反映穩(wěn)定性梅雨暴雨的過程演變。

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The precipitation Extreme Forecast Index (EFI), "Shift of Tail" index (SOT) and ensemble anomaly forecasting approach were evaluated for typhoon and Meiyu rainstorms in Zhejiang Province during 2016-2021, based on European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting Ensemble Prediction System (ECMWF-EPS). The optimal thresholds of extreme forecast indexes for typhoon and Meiyu rainstorms were obtained. The thresholds for Meiyu rainstorm are significantly smaller and decrease more slowly than those for typhoon rainstorm. The optimal thresholds forecast show better stability, timeliness and accuracy, compared with a single model forecast. Further research found that the optimal forecast thresholds determined by different weather types can be used as good reference for typhoon and Meiyu rainstorms forecast. Ensemble anomaly forecasting approach was applied to diagnose the physical quantities for better understanding of the development of rainstorm. The standardized anomaly of water vapor flux convergence at 925 hPa indicates the variation of typhoon rainstorm, while the standardized anomalies of vorticity at 850 hPa and vertical velocity at 700 hPa reveal the development of stable Meiyu rainstorm.

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王麗穎,婁小芬,羅玲,錢浩.極端天氣預(yù)報(bào)指數(shù)和集合異常預(yù)報(bào)法在浙江臺(tái)風(fēng)和梅雨暴雨預(yù)報(bào)中的應(yīng)用.氣象科學(xué),2023,43(1):25-35 WANG Liying, LOU Xiaofen, LUO Ling, QIAN Hao. Application of precipitation extreme forecast index and ensemble anomaly forecasting approach on typhoon and Meiyu rainstorm forecast in Zhejiang Province. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2023,43(1):25-35

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收稿日期:2022-01-06
最后修改日期:2022-01-22
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2023-05-15
出版日期: 2023-02-15

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