基于不同重現(xiàn)期的1960—2019年長三角地區(qū)區(qū)域降水風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估

doi:10.12306/2021jms.0012

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基于不同重現(xiàn)期的1960—2019年長三角地區(qū)區(qū)域降水風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估
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                        10.12306/2021jms.0012
                    
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中圖分類號:P467
基金項(xiàng)目:國家重點(diǎn)研發(fā)計(jì)劃資助項(xiàng)目(2019YFB2102003)

Risk assessment of regional precipitation in Yangtze River Delta from 1960 to 2019 based on different return periods

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本文基于長三角地區(qū)1960—2019年逐日降水觀測數(shù)據(jù)以及2015年1 km格網(wǎng)的GDP和人口數(shù)據(jù),借助區(qū)域降水事件提取方法共識別出2 109次區(qū)域降水事件,并利用不同分布函數(shù)確定不同重現(xiàn)期下降水強(qiáng)度和降水日數(shù)的閾值,進(jìn)一步采用國際減災(zāi)戰(zhàn)略(ISDR)的災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估模型,從危險(xiǎn)性與脆弱性綜合評價(jià)長三角地區(qū)區(qū)域降水風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及其空間分布特征。結(jié)果表明:(1)對于降水強(qiáng)度,GEV函數(shù)擬合效果最優(yōu);對于降水日數(shù),EXP函數(shù)和POISS函數(shù)擬合效果最好;(2)長三角不同重現(xiàn)期下區(qū)域降水的危險(xiǎn)性均從中部地區(qū)向南北兩側(cè)遞減;(3)長三角脆弱性由東部沿海向內(nèi)陸逐漸降低;(4)不同重現(xiàn)期下長三角區(qū)域降水風(fēng)險(xiǎn)均是由東部沿海向內(nèi)陸降低,其中各大中心城市始終是高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)。

Abstract:

Based on the daily precipitation data in the Yangtze River Delta from 1960 to 2019 and the GDP and population data of the 1 km grid in 2015, the regional precipitation event extraction method was used to identify a total of 2 109 regional precipitation events and the different distribution function was used to calculate the threshold of the precipitation intensity as well as precipitation days under different return periods, moreover, the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) disaster risk assessment model was adopted to evaluate the risk of regional precipitation and its spatial distribution characteristics comprehensively in the Yangtze River Delta based on local risk and vulnerability. Results show that: (1)the GEV function has the best fitting effect for precipitation intensity; for the number of precipitation days, EXP function and POISS function have the best fitting effect. (2)The hazards of regional precipitation in the Yangtze River Delta at different recurrence periods decrease from the central region to the north and south sides. (3)The vulnerability of the Yangtze River Delta gradually decreases from the eastern coastal to the inland areas. (4)Under different return periods, the risk of precipitation in the Yangtze River Delta all reduce from the eastern coastal to the inland, among which the major central cities are always high risk areas.

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孫艷,曾燕,邱新法,徐金勤.基于不同重現(xiàn)期的1960—2019年長三角地區(qū)區(qū)域降水風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估.氣象科學(xué),2023,43(1):110-117 SUN Yan, ZENG Yan, QIU Xinfa, XU Jinqin. Risk assessment of regional precipitation in Yangtze River Delta from 1960 to 2019 based on different return periods. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2023,43(1):110-117

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收稿日期:2020-09-02
最后修改日期:2020-11-04
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2023-05-15
出版日期: 2023-02-15

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