基于ECMWF和華東區(qū)域中尺度模式的暴雨預(yù)報(bào)特征研究

doi:10.12306/2021jms.0057

首頁(yè) > 過(guò)刊瀏覽>2023年第43卷第2期 >196-206. DOI:10.12306/2021jms.0057

基于ECMWF和華東區(qū)域中尺度模式的暴雨預(yù)報(bào)特征研究
DOI:
                        10.12306/2021jms.0057
                    
CSTR:
                        
                    
作者:
                        
                        
                    
作者單位:
作者簡(jiǎn)介:
通訊作者:
中圖分類號(hào):P456.7
基金項(xiàng)目:山東省自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目（ZR2020MD055）；山東省氣象局面上項(xiàng)目（2020sdqxm07）

Study on characteristics of rainstorm prediction by ECMWF and CMA-SH9

Author:

Affiliation:

Fund Project:

摘要

圖/表

訪問(wèn)統(tǒng)計(jì)

參考文獻(xiàn)

相似文獻(xiàn)

引證文獻(xiàn)

資源附件

文章評(píng)論

摘要:

為探討ECMWF、華東區(qū)域中尺度模式（簡(jiǎn)稱為CMA-SH9模式）多個(gè)時(shí)效對(duì)夏季（2019年6—8月）暴雨預(yù)報(bào)特征，采用目標(biāo)對(duì)象檢驗(yàn)方法對(duì)不同類型影響系統(tǒng)下模式預(yù)報(bào)的強(qiáng)降水落區(qū)面積、位置、形狀等進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)，并對(duì)預(yù)報(bào)難度較大的受西風(fēng)槽和西太平洋副熱帶高壓（以下簡(jiǎn)稱副高）邊緣切變線影響的高空要素場(chǎng)及環(huán)流形勢(shì)場(chǎng)進(jìn)行了研究。結(jié)果表明：ECMWF和CMA-SH9模式對(duì)夏季暴雨預(yù)報(bào)偏小3個(gè)量級(jí)次數(shù)最多，CMA-SH9模式各時(shí)效對(duì)暴雨及以上降水預(yù)報(bào)的準(zhǔn)確率大多高于ECMWF；ECMWF和CMA-SH9模式對(duì)熱帶氣旋與中緯度系統(tǒng)相互作用的暴雨預(yù)報(bào)最好，其次是冷渦影響，預(yù)報(bào)較差的是受西風(fēng)槽及副高邊緣切變線影響的暴雨過(guò)程；西風(fēng)槽及副高邊緣切變線影響時(shí)ECMWF的位勢(shì)高度場(chǎng)預(yù)報(bào)略好于CMA-SH9模式，溫度的預(yù)報(bào)500 hPa以上CMA-SH9模式略好于ECMWF，500 hPa以下二者相差不大，相對(duì)濕度的預(yù)報(bào)CMA-SH9模式誤差小于ECMWF，且CMA-SH9模式850 hPa的36 h和60 h時(shí)效預(yù)報(bào)誤差最??；受西風(fēng)槽及副高邊緣切變線影響的一次暴雨過(guò)程中，相對(duì)濕度90%及以上落區(qū)的預(yù)報(bào)ECMWF與實(shí)況10 mm·h^-1降水落區(qū)幾乎無(wú)交集，CMA-SH9模式的預(yù)報(bào)包含了10 mm降水落區(qū)。

Abstract:

In order to investigate the characteristic of ECMWF and CMA-SH9 models on multiple time-effect forecasts of rainstorm in summer (June to August in 2019), the object-based verification method is used to evaluate the area, location and shape of different types of heavy precipitation falling area predicted by of models about different influence systems, and the unpredictable high altitude factors and circulation influenced by westerly trough and shear line at the edge of subtropical high are also discussed in this study. The results show that, the times of forecast in rainstorm are mostly three orders of magnitude smaller. The prediction accuracy of rainstorm with multiple periods of validity about CMA-SH9 model is higher than that of the ECMWF model. The models of ECMWF and CMA-SH9 are better working in forecasting of the tropical cyclone with mid-low latitude circulation than in prediction of cold vortex, and the models of ECMWF and CMA-SH9 are worse working in forecasting of the shear line at the edge of subtropical high. When the westerly trough and shear line the edge of subtropical high edge affected, the prediction of geopotential height by ECMWF model is better than CMA-SH9. The prediction of temperature by CMA-SH9 is slightly better than ECMWF above 500 hPa, and there is little difference below 500 hPa. The forecast error of relative humidity prediction by CMA-SH9 is smaller than that of ECMWF, and the errors of 36 h and 60 h period of validity by CMA-SH9 are the smallest. In the ‘20190807’ process affected by the westerly trough and the shear line at the edge of subtropical high, the area of relative humidity above 90% predicted by ECMWF has no intersection with areas of 10 mm·h^-1 precipitation from observational data, while the area of relative humidity above 90% predicted by CMA-SH9 covers the area of 10 mm precipitation.

參考文獻(xiàn)

相似文獻(xiàn)

引證文獻(xiàn)

引用本文

曲巧娜,盛春巖,范蘇丹,榮艷敏,夏凡.基于ECMWF和華東區(qū)域中尺度模式的暴雨預(yù)報(bào)特征研究.氣象科學(xué),2023,43(2):196-206 QU Qiaona, SHENG Chunyan, FAN Sudan, RONG Yanmin, XIA Fan. Study on characteristics of rainstorm prediction by ECMWF and CMA-SH9. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2023,43(2):196-206

復(fù)制

文章指標(biāo)

點(diǎn)擊次數(shù):
下載次數(shù):
HTML閱讀次數(shù):
引用次數(shù):

歷史

收稿日期:2021-03-11
最后修改日期:2021-07-05
錄用日期:
在線發(fā)布日期: 2023-05-20
出版日期: 2023-04-15

文章二維碼

您是第位訪問(wèn)者
氣象科學(xué) ® 2026 版權(quán)所有
技術(shù)支持：北京勤云科技發(fā)展有限公司

抽查舔水白紧大视频,冲喜娘子超甜哒激情五月,亚洲黄色图片偷拍网站,亚洲三级黄片免费播放,91在线观看喷潮红桃,日韩精品在线观看一区二区,久久久久久久久久久久黄色片子,日产精品99久久久久久久久,欧洲亚洲另类图片小说

引用本文

分享

相關(guān)視頻

文章指標(biāo)

歷史

文章二維碼

抽查舔水白紧大视频,冲喜娘子超甜哒 激情五月,亚洲黄色图片偷拍网站,亚洲三级黄片免费播放,91在线观看喷潮红桃,日韩精品在线观看一区二区,久久久久久久久久久久黄色片子,日产精品99久久久久久久久,欧洲亚洲另类图片小说

引用本文

分享

相關(guān)視頻

文章指標(biāo)

歷史

文章二維碼

抽查舔水白紧大视频,冲喜娘子超甜哒激情五月,亚洲黄色图片偷拍网站,亚洲三级黄片免费播放,91在线观看喷潮红桃,日韩精品在线观看一区二区,久久久久久久久久久久黄色片子,日产精品99久久久久久久久,欧洲亚洲另类图片小说