一種聯(lián)合歷史和實(shí)時(shí)資料的定量降水短時(shí)預(yù)報(bào)技術(shù)研究

doi:10.12306/2022jms.0054

首頁(yè) > 過(guò)刊瀏覽>2023年第43卷第3期 >296-304. DOI:10.12306/2022jms.0054

一種聯(lián)合歷史和實(shí)時(shí)資料的定量降水短時(shí)預(yù)報(bào)技術(shù)研究
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                        10.12306/2022jms.0054
                    
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中圖分類(lèi)號(hào):P456.1
基金項(xiàng)目:國(guó)家重點(diǎn)研發(fā)計(jì)劃資助項(xiàng)目(2021YFC3000903;2017YFC1502005;2019YFC1510702);中國(guó)氣象局創(chuàng)新發(fā)展專項(xiàng)(CXFZ2021Z009)

Objective calibration method on short-term quantitative precipitation forecast combining historical and real-time data

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本文提出一種基于百分位映射,使用實(shí)時(shí)和歷史資料聯(lián)合訂正模式定量降水短時(shí)訂正預(yù)報(bào)技術(shù),并與僅使用歷史資料或?qū)崟r(shí)資料的訂正效果進(jìn)行對(duì)比。結(jié)果表明:三種方案均能有效訂正模式原始降水預(yù)報(bào)偏差,提高0~12 h降水預(yù)報(bào)準(zhǔn)確率。對(duì)于晴雨預(yù)報(bào),采用聯(lián)合訂正方案,預(yù)報(bào)效果最優(yōu)。在0~7 h預(yù)報(bào)時(shí)效內(nèi),僅采用實(shí)時(shí)資料的訂正方案準(zhǔn)確率明顯優(yōu)于僅采用歷史資料的訂正方案,在8~12 h預(yù)報(bào)時(shí)效內(nèi),后者準(zhǔn)確率稍高。所有預(yù)報(bào)時(shí)效內(nèi),僅采用實(shí)時(shí)資料的訂正方案降水預(yù)報(bào)范圍較僅采用歷史資料的方案略偏大。對(duì)于較強(qiáng)降水預(yù)報(bào),采用聯(lián)合訂正方案準(zhǔn)確率為三種方案最優(yōu),僅采用實(shí)時(shí)資料的方案預(yù)報(bào)準(zhǔn)確率雖優(yōu)于僅采用歷史資料的方案,但預(yù)報(bào)范圍及量級(jí)較實(shí)況明顯偏大。

Abstract:

By jointly using the historical and observation data, an objective correction method on short-term quantitative precipitation forecast was proposed based on percentile mapping. Moreover, the correction effect was compared with the results of the correction schemes that only use a historical data or observation data. Results show that the three schemes can effectively correct the deviation of the original model precipitation forecast and improve the accuracy of the 0-12 h precipitation forecast. For the sunny/rainy forecast, the joint correction scheme by using both data performs the best. For the 0-7 h precipitation forecast, the accuracy of the scheme by using only observation data is significantly better than that of using only historical data. For the 8-12 h precipitation forecast, the latter has a slightly higher accuracy. For all the forecast leading time, the precipitation range forecasted by the scheme using only observation data is slightly larger than that of using only historical data. For the heavy rainfall forecast, the accuracy of the joint correction scheme is the best among the three schemes, and the forecasted precipitation range is closer to the observation. Although the forecast accuracy of the scheme using only observation data is better than that using only historical data, the forecasted precipitation range and magnitude are obviously larger than observations.

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曹勇,郭云謙,張恒德,魯明欣宇,徐成鵬.一種聯(lián)合歷史和實(shí)時(shí)資料的定量降水短時(shí)預(yù)報(bào)技術(shù)研究.氣象科學(xué),2023,43(3):296-304 CAO Yong, GUO Yunqian, ZHANG Hengde, LU Mingxinyu, XU Chengpeng. Objective calibration method on short-term quantitative precipitation forecast combining historical and real-time data. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2023,43(3):296-304

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收稿日期:2022-03-02
最后修改日期:2022-05-16
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2023-07-27
出版日期: 2023-06-15

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