鋒生切變型強對流概念模型在浙江中西部“3·21”過程中的應(yīng)用探究

doi:10.12306/2021jms.0009

首頁 > 過刊瀏覽>2023年第43卷第3期 >393-401. DOI:10.12306/2021jms.0009

鋒生切變型強對流概念模型在浙江中西部“3·21”過程中的應(yīng)用探究
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                        10.12306/2021jms.0009
                    
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中圖分類號:P456
基金項目:浙江省氣象局預(yù)報員專項項目(2018YBY05)

Application of frontogenesis and shear category severe convection conceptual model in the West-Central of Zhejiang Province on March 21,2019

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利用ECMWF 0.25°×0.25°再分析資料,對照浙中西的強對流概念模型,對2019年3月21日發(fā)生在浙江中西部地區(qū)(簡稱"浙中西")的一次雷暴大風(fēng)為主的強對流過程(簡稱"3·21"過程)進(jìn)行診斷分析、經(jīng)驗總結(jié)。結(jié)果表明:該過程符合浙中西鋒生切變型的強對流概念模型,出現(xiàn)該過程的環(huán)境條件是700 hPa西南急流脈動、850 hPa偏北和偏南兩支氣流強烈發(fā)展、地面低壓倒槽和低層濕舌增強;探空曲線表現(xiàn)為上干下濕,對流層中層有明顯的干侵入,大風(fēng)指數(shù)I_w、對流有效位能 (Convective Available Potential Energy, CAPE)和500 hPa以下垂直風(fēng)切變異常偏強形成動力強迫;對比不同強對流天氣有不同的預(yù)報著眼點,設(shè)定閾值或可提高預(yù)報警報效率,如雷暴大風(fēng)天氣大風(fēng)指數(shù)I_w > 18.5 m·s^-1、CAPE> 1 700 J·kg^-1、500 hPa的相對濕度小于46 %,冰雹天氣則0 ℃層、-20 ℃層高度低于4.6 km和7.6 km且850 hPa與500 hPa氣層溫差高于26 ℃等,深刻理解該類強對流概念模型,是做好此類致災(zāi)性強對流潛勢預(yù)報的關(guān)鍵點。

Abstract:

Based on ECMWF 0.25°×0.25° reanalysis data, the conceptual model of severe convection in central and western Zhejiang was applied , then a diagnostic analysis and experience summary of a severe convection process dominated by thunderstorm gale event that occurred in the West-Central of Zhejiang Province on 21 March 2019 (hereinafter referred to as the "3.21" gale event) were made. Results are as follows: the synoptic situation of the "3.12"gale event meets the concept severe convective model of frontogenesis and shear category in the West-Central of Zhejiang Province. There exists an abnormally strong southwest jet pulsating at 700 hPa with convergence of cold and warm air features at 850 hPa. Also, the low surface pressure accompanied with a warm inverted trough develops intensively and significantly strengthening of wet tongue. T-lnP diagram shows the configuration of dry in the high and humid air in the low level with significantly dry intrusion in the middle troposphere, several instability indices, such as the I_w index, the value of CAPE and vertical wind shear below 500 hPa, are significantly strong. Comparing with different types of severe convective weather, it is found that there are different key points to better forecast the disaster-causing event, and setting threshold may improve the efficiency of forecasting and warning. For example, for the thunderstorm gale events the I_w index is more than 18.5 m·s^-1, CAPE is more than 1 700 J·kg^-1 and the relative humidity at 500 hPa is less than 40%. Nevertheless, for the hailstorm events the height of 0 ℃ layer and -20 ℃ layer are lower than 4.6 km and 7.6 km , and temperature difference between 850 hPa and 500 hPa is higher than 26 ℃. Therefore, a profound understanding of this type of severe convective concept model is the key point to realize such catastrophic severe convective potential forecast well.

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毛程燕,顧振海,龔理卿,孫杭媛,荊思佳.鋒生切變型強對流概念模型在浙江中西部“3·21”過程中的應(yīng)用探究.氣象科學(xué),2023,43(3):393-401 MAO Chengyan, GU Zhenhai, GONG Liqing, SUN Hangyuan, JIANG Sijia. Application of frontogenesis and shear category severe convection conceptual model in the West-Central of Zhejiang Province on March 21,2019. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2023,43(3):393-401

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收稿日期:2020-07-14
最后修改日期:2020-10-23
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2023-07-27
出版日期: 2023-06-15

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