基于區(qū)域歷史回歸法的雷州半島火箭增雨作業(yè)效果檢驗(yàn)

doi:10.12306/2021jms.0074

首頁(yè) > 過刊瀏覽>2023年第43卷第3期 >412-419. DOI:10.12306/2021jms.0074

基于區(qū)域歷史回歸法的雷州半島火箭增雨作業(yè)效果檢驗(yàn)
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                        10.12306/2021jms.0074
                    
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中圖分類號(hào):P48
基金項(xiàng)目:中國(guó)氣象局氣溶膠與云降水重點(diǎn)開放實(shí)驗(yàn)室開放課題(KDW1902);中國(guó)氣象局云霧物理環(huán)境重點(diǎn)開放實(shí)驗(yàn)室開放課題(2017Z016)

Effect test of rocket precipitation enhancement in Leizhou Peninsula based on regional historical regression method

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摘要:

利用ERA5再分析資料,區(qū)域自動(dòng)站雨量資料以及雙偏振雷達(dá)基數(shù)據(jù),采用區(qū)域歷史回歸方法,對(duì)2020年7月4日雷州半島火箭人工增雨作業(yè)進(jìn)行物理檢驗(yàn)和統(tǒng)計(jì)檢驗(yàn)。結(jié)果表明:作業(yè)后作業(yè)區(qū)域云系云冰含量大幅增加,強(qiáng)回波區(qū)面積增大,回波頂高度升高,平均回波強(qiáng)度顯著增加。選取1971—2000年作業(yè)影響區(qū)和對(duì)比區(qū)逐年7月的平均日降水量資料作為歷史樣本建立回歸公式,結(jié)合作業(yè)當(dāng)天區(qū)域自動(dòng)站的雨量資料,計(jì)算得出日降水量和作業(yè)后3 h累積降水量的絕對(duì)增雨量分別為11.07 mm和2.32 mm,相對(duì)增雨率分別為51.08%和38.73%,均通過了置信水平為α=0.05顯著性檢驗(yàn)。因此,雷州半島開展人工增雨作業(yè)對(duì)緩解氣象干旱,滿足水庫(kù)蓄水等有重要意義。

Abstract:

Based on the reanalysis data of ERA5, rainfall data of regional automatic stations and dual polarization radar data, the statistical and physical tests of rocket artificial precipitation enhancement on July 4, 2020 in Leizhou Peninsula are carried out by using the regional historical regression method. The results show that: after the operation, the cloud ice content of cloud system in the operation area increases greatly, the area of strong echo area increases, the height of echo top increases, and the average echo intensity increases significantly. The average daily precipitation data in July of 1971-2000 in operation affected area and contrast area were selected as historical samples to establish regression formula. Combined with the rainfall data of regional automatic stations on the operation day, the absolute precipitation increment of daily rainfall and accumulated rainfall in three hours after operation were calculated as 11.07 mm and 2.32 mm respectively, and the relative precipitation increment rates were 51.08% and 38.73% respectively, all of them passed the significance test with 95% confidence level. Therefore, it is of great significance for Leizhou Peninsula to carry out artificial precipitation to alleviate the meteorological drought and meet the requirements of reservoir water storage.

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張澤群,鄺家豪,曹琪敏,黃曉梅,陳榮,鄒嘉南.基于區(qū)域歷史回歸法的雷州半島火箭增雨作業(yè)效果檢驗(yàn).氣象科學(xué),2023,43(3):412-419 ZHANG Zequn, KUANG Jiahao, CAO Qimin, HUANG Xiaomei, CHEN Rong, ZOU Jianan. Effect test of rocket precipitation enhancement in Leizhou Peninsula based on regional historical regression method. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2023,43(3):412-419

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收稿日期:2021-07-14
最后修改日期:2021-08-08
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2023-07-27
出版日期: 2023-06-15

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