不同輻射強迫對暖干復合事件強度長期趨勢信號檢測的影響

doi:10.12306/2021jms.0091

首頁 > 過刊瀏覽>2023年第43卷第4期 >451-459. DOI:10.12306/2021jms.0091

不同輻射強迫對暖干復合事件強度長期趨勢信號檢測的影響
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                        10.12306/2021jms.0091
                    
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中圖分類號:P422
基金項目:國家重點研發(fā)計劃資助項目(2022YFF0801704;2018YFC1507704;2017YFA0603804),國家自然科學基金資助項目(41905078);南京信息工程大學大學生創(chuàng)新創(chuàng)業(yè)訓練計劃資助項目(202010300044Z)

Influence of external forcing on the detection in the long-term trend of hot and dry compound events over China

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本文基于Copula聯(lián)合概率建立表征暖干復合事件強度的指數(shù),基于單個輻射強迫的地球系統(tǒng)模式大樣本模擬試驗的結果,使用4種場顯著性檢驗的方法分析了不同輻射強迫下中國區(qū)域整體暖干事件強度長期趨勢信號的可檢測性。結果表明,4種方法得到的結論較為一致,均表明全強迫(自然外強迫和人為外強迫)下中國大部分區(qū)域復合事件的強度顯著增強,不同集合成員之間的趨勢較為一致,表明長期趨勢主要受外強迫而非氣候系統(tǒng)內部變率影響,其長期趨勢的外強迫信號大約出現(xiàn)在2005年。在單個溫室氣體強迫的模擬試驗下,復合事件強度的長期趨勢更為明顯,主要體現(xiàn)在強度更強并且長期趨勢中外強迫信號出現(xiàn)的時間更早(約2000年)。但是在單個氣溶膠強迫下,尚檢測不到暖干事件強度長期趨勢的外強迫信號。進一步分析表明,溫度變化是暖干事件強度長期趨勢變化的主要貢獻因素。溫室氣體強迫下溫度的貢獻更大,尤其是在我國西部地區(qū)。

Abstract:

Based on the Copula model, an index was constructed to measure the Severity of Compound Hot and Dry Event (SDHI). A large ensemble simulation from single radiative forcing was used to analysis the detectability of the long-term trend of the SDHI over China. Four methods used to test the field significant were compared, and the results from them were consistent. Under all forcing (natural forcing plus anthropogenic forcing), the severity of the events in most regions of China exhibit significant increasing trend, and the differences among individuals ensembles are relatively small, indicating that the long-term trend is mainly affected by the external forcing rather than the internal variability of climate system, and the external forcing signal in long-term trend of SDHI appears around 2005. The long-term trend of the SDHI is more obvious under single greenhouse gas forcing experiment, and the trend signal appeared as early as around 2000. However, the signal of trend cannot be detected in the simulation experiment under the single aerosol forcing. Further analysis shows that temperature changes dominate the long-term trend of SDHI. Under the single greenhouse gas forcing, the contribution of temperature is greater than that under all forcing experiment, especially in western China.

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潘容筠,李偉,江志紅.不同輻射強迫對暖干復合事件強度長期趨勢信號檢測的影響.氣象科學,2023,43(4):451-459 PAN Rongyun, LI Wei, JIANG Zhihong. Influence of external forcing on the detection in the long-term trend of hot and dry compound events over China. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2023,43(4):451-459

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收稿日期:2021-06-24
最后修改日期:2021-11-09
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2024-01-23
出版日期: 2023-08-15

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