強降水事件的判定指標及評估研究

doi:10.12306/2022jms.0067

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強降水事件的判定指標及評估研究
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                        10.12306/2022jms.0067
                    
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中圖分類號:P468.024
基金項目:江蘇省青年科技人才托舉工程(TJ-2022-053);江蘇省氣象局科研項目(KZ202205;KZ202201;KZ202101;KM201801)

Evaluation on indicators for heavy precipitation events

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以江蘇1961—2020年夏季(6—9月)強降水事件的監(jiān)測為例,分析評估了多種強降水事件的判定指標,如以百分位法、Gamma分布法和重現(xiàn)期法為代表的頻率匹配閾值法及考慮偏離氣候態(tài)程度的異常度法。結(jié)果表明,由于降水事件的區(qū)域差異和季節(jié)內(nèi)變化特征,強(極端強)降水事件判定指標的設(shè)計應(yīng)分區(qū)域分時段討論,且能定量反映降水強度大、相對氣候態(tài)異常顯著且發(fā)生概率少(極少)的特點。不同判定方法所強調(diào)的強(極端強)降水事件的特點不同,如百分位法Type-Ⅱ強調(diào)了降水極值的極少發(fā)生,異常度法突出反映大幅度偏離氣候態(tài)的程度。不同指標所確立的閾值大小也存在明顯差別,如對于江蘇夏季極端強降水事件的判定,百分位法Type-Ⅱ閾值最高,其次是異常度法,分別相當于20、10 a一遇最大降水量,百分位法Type-Ⅲ和Gamma分布法則相當于5 a一遇最大降水量。在與降水相關(guān)的服務(wù)工作中,不同地區(qū)需制定更詳細的地方標準來明確強降水事件的定義,增強服務(wù)用語的規(guī)范性。

Abstract:

Multiple indicators for heavy precipitation events have been evaluated by taking the monitoring of the summertime (June-September) heavy precipitation events over Jiangsu Province for example. Establishing the frequency-matching thresholds by the ways of calculating the percentiles, Gamma cumulative probability and the return periods, and the standardized anomalies associated with the deviation from climatology are the representative methods for the identification of heavy precipitation events. Results show that considering the intraseasonal variation and regional disparity of the precipitation, the indicators for heavy (extremely heavy) precipitation events should be discussed in different regions and periods, as well as can objectively underline the rarely enhanced intensity, the significant abnormality, and the small (extremely small) occurrence probability. Different indicators emphasized different characteristics of the heavy (extremely heavy) precipitation events. For example, the rare occurrence of the extremity of the rainfall amount is underscored by the percentiles method Type-Ⅱ, while the departure far away from the climate state of precipitation is denoted by the standardized anomalies. The difference of the thresholds by the indicators is obvious. For identifying the extreme heavy precipitation events over Jiangsu in summer, the thresholds obtained by the percentiles method Type-Ⅱ are the highest and approximately equates to the maximum precipitation with a return period of 20 years. The next is the method of calculating the standardized anomalies with the thresholds equal to a return period of 10 years, while the threshold rainfall by the methods of the percentiles method Type-Ⅲ and the Gamma cumulative probability occurs about every 5 years. To unify the expression in the service work, the detailed regional standards of the definition of heavy precipitation events should be further proposed.

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陳圣劼,張柳,康志明,劉梅,田心如.強降水事件的判定指標及評估研究.氣象科學(xué),2023,43(4):505-514 CHEN Shengjie, ZHANG Liu, KANG Zhiming, LIU Mei, TIAN Xinru. Evaluation on indicators for heavy precipitation events. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2023,43(4):505-514

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收稿日期:2021-08-11
最后修改日期:2022-05-30
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2024-01-23
出版日期: 2023-08-15

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