CMIP6-WACCM模式對(duì)北半球反氣旋型Rossby波破碎趨勢的預(yù)估

doi:10.12306/2023jms.0041

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CMIP6-WACCM模式對(duì)北半球反氣旋型Rossby波破碎趨勢的預(yù)估
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                        10.12306/2023jms.0041
                    
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中圖分類號(hào):P461.2
基金項(xiàng)目:國家重點(diǎn)研發(fā)計(jì)劃資助項(xiàng)目（2022YFF0801703）；國家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目（41875048）

Projection of the trend of anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking in the Northern Hemisphere by CMIP6-WACCM

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摘要:

利用CMIP6中的CESM2-WACCM模式逐日資料，預(yù)估未來2020—2099年SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5三種不同排放情景下北半球?qū)α鲗禹敻浇礆庑蚏ossby波破碎（Anticyclonic Rossby Wave Breaking， AWB）的空間分布、發(fā)生頻率、水平尺度、對(duì)稱結(jié)構(gòu)及其長期趨勢?？傮w而言，未來四個(gè)季節(jié)AWB都在北太平洋和北大西洋有高頻區(qū)。夏季北太平洋高頻區(qū)發(fā)生頻數(shù)顯著多于北大西洋高頻區(qū)，其他三季相反。兩高頻區(qū)在三種不同情景下，AWB物質(zhì)經(jīng)向輸送通常以對(duì)稱輸送為主，但北太平洋區(qū)內(nèi)冬、春、秋三季在SSP2-4.5情景下AWB物質(zhì)向極凈輸送，北大西洋區(qū)內(nèi)夏季在SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下AWB物質(zhì)向赤道凈輸送。未來的長期趨勢顯示，兩高頻區(qū)內(nèi)各季節(jié)的AWB發(fā)生頻數(shù)、水平尺度和物質(zhì)向極輸送主要呈減?。p少）趨勢，且溫室氣體排放量越大，減小趨勢越顯著。在SSP5-8.5情景下，北太平洋夏季AWB總面積變化趨勢為-365.5個(gè)1°×1°標(biāo)準(zhǔn)經(jīng)緯度網(wǎng)格/10 a，該變化由區(qū)域內(nèi)AWB平均尺度減小（-2.7個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化網(wǎng)格/10 a）和發(fā)生頻率減少（-1.9個(gè)/10 a）共同導(dǎo)致；該區(qū)域的向極輸送率變化率為-0.016 5/10 a。北大西洋秋季AWB發(fā)生頻數(shù)變化率為-2.3個(gè)/10 a，導(dǎo)致其總面積則以-440.4個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化網(wǎng)格/10 a的速度減小。

Abstract:

By using daily data from the CESM2-WACCM model in CMIP6, the spatial distribution, occurrence frequency, horizontal scale, symmetric structure, and long-term trend of Anticyclonic Rossby Wave Breaking (AWB) near the tropopause in the Northern Hemisphere under three different emission scenarios:SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 from 2020 to 2099 were projected. Overall, AWB is projected to occupy two high-frequency areas in the North Pacific and North Atlantic for all four seasons. The frequency of AWB occurrences in the North Pacific during summer is significantly higher than that in the North Atlantic, while the opposite is observed in the other three seasons. Within the two high frequency areas, symmetric transport is usually dominant for AWB material transport under the three different scenarios. However, in the North Pacific region, AWB material transport during winter, spring, and autumn tends to be poleward in the SSP2-4.5 scenario, while during summer in the North Atlantic region, AWB material transport tends to be equatorward in the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. There is a decreasing trend in AWB occurrence frequency, horizontal scale, and poleward transport in both high frequency areas for all seasons, with a more significant decrease in the larger greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the total area of AWB occurrence in the North Pacific during summer is projected to decrease at a rate of -365.5 standardized 1°×1° grid cells per decade. This decrease is due to a combination of AWB average scale decreasing at a rate of 2.7 standardized grid cells/decade and the frequency decreasing at a rate of 1.9 events/decade. The trend of poleward transport rate in the North Pacific is -0.016 5/decade. The trend of AWB occurrence frequency in the North Atlantic during autumn is -2.3/decade, resulting in a total area decrease rate of 440.4 standardized grid cells/decade.

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李瑤瑤,施春華,郭棟. CMIP6-WACCM模式對(duì)北半球反氣旋型Rossby波破碎趨勢的預(yù)估.氣象科學(xué),2023,43(6):723-735 LI Yaoyao, SHI Chunhua, GUO Dong. Projection of the trend of anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking in the Northern Hemisphere by CMIP6-WACCM. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2023,43(6):723-735

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收稿日期:2023-05-04
最后修改日期:2023-05-24
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2024-02-01
出版日期: 2023-12-15

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