CMIP6模式中的中國(guó)冬季氣溫主要區(qū)域空間模態(tài)及與觀測(cè)的對(duì)比分析

doi:10.12306/2021jms.0095

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CMIP6模式中的中國(guó)冬季氣溫主要區(qū)域空間模態(tài)及與觀測(cè)的對(duì)比分析
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                        10.12306/2021jms.0095
                    
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中圖分類號(hào):P467
基金項(xiàng)目:國(guó)家重點(diǎn)研發(fā)計(jì)劃資助項(xiàng)目（2018YFC1505602）；國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目（41975048；41975106；42030605）；江蘇省自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目（BK20191404）

Main regional spatial modes of winter temperature in China based on CMIP6 and its comparison with observations

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利用國(guó)際耦合模式比較計(jì)劃第六階段（CMIP6）的全球氣候模式歷史模擬試驗(yàn)資料，通過旋轉(zhuǎn)經(jīng)驗(yàn)正交函數(shù)分析得到了CMIP6模式中的我國(guó)冬季氣溫變化主要的區(qū)域空間模態(tài)。結(jié)果表明：CMIP6多模式集合平均中我國(guó)冬季氣溫有4個(gè)主要的區(qū)域空間模態(tài)，分別為中原—西北型，華南型，東北型以及滇藏型。其中，東北型與滇藏型是較為穩(wěn)定的空間模態(tài)，在所選CMIP6模式及觀測(cè)資料中都穩(wěn)定存在，這也是前人研究中一致性較高的模態(tài)。而我國(guó)新疆、西北、華中及華南地區(qū)的冬季氣溫在空間分型上存在分歧，這些地區(qū)的分型在以往研究中的一致性也較差。華南型在所選CMIP6模式內(nèi)是一致存在的模態(tài)，中原—西北型在模式內(nèi)部的差異性較大。在近40 a觀測(cè)資料中，新疆及西北到我國(guó)南方為統(tǒng)一的空間分型，在CMIP6多模式集合平均的結(jié)果中新疆及西北地區(qū)氣溫空間分布與我國(guó)中原地區(qū)的聯(lián)系更為緊密。CMIP6模式能較好地模擬出與低溫空間分布有直接聯(lián)系的對(duì)流層中層的槽的位置，當(dāng)CMIP6模式和觀測(cè)中的冬季氣溫都表現(xiàn)為同一個(gè)空間模態(tài)時(shí)，該模態(tài)所對(duì)應(yīng)的對(duì)流層中層的主要環(huán)流系統(tǒng)在觀測(cè)和CMIP6模式中也是一致的。

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In this paper, the main regional spatial modes of winter 2 m air temperature in China were obtained by rotating empirical orthogonal function analysis based on historical simulation of global climate models for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Results show that:the main regional spatial modes of winter 2 m air temperature in China based on CMIP6 multi-model ensemble mean can be classified as four types, namely Central-Northwest mode, South mode, Northeast mode and Yunnan-Tibet mode. Among them, Northeast mode and Yunnan-Tibet mode are relatively stable spatial modes, which exist stably in the selected CMIP6 models and observation data, and are the modes with high consistency in previous studies. However, there are divergences in the spatial classification of winter 2 m air temperature in Xinjiang, Northwest, central and South China, and the consistency of the classification of these regions is poor in previous studies. The South mode appears in all the selected CMIP6 models, while the Central-Northwest mode has great divergences within the models. In the observation data of recent 40 years, the spatial distribution of 2 m air temperature can classify as one mode in Xinjiang, Northwest and South China. However, in the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble mean, the spatial distribution of air temperature in Xinjiang and Northwest China is more closely related to the Central Plains of China. The CMIP6 model has good performance in simulating the location of the trough in the middle troposphere, which is directly related to the spatial distribution of low air temperature in winter. When the CMIP6 models and the observed winter temperature show the same spatial mode, the main circulation system in the middle troposphere associated with the mode is also consistent in the observation and CMIP6 models.

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陳金琪,胡景高,徐海明,郭棟. CMIP6模式中的中國(guó)冬季氣溫主要區(qū)域空間模態(tài)及與觀測(cè)的對(duì)比分析.氣象科學(xué),2023,43(6):736-748 CHEN Jinqi, HU Jinggao, XU Haiming, GUO Dong. Main regional spatial modes of winter temperature in China based on CMIP6 and its comparison with observations. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2023,43(6):736-748

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收稿日期:2021-09-08
最后修改日期:2021-11-15
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2024-02-01
出版日期: 2023-12-15

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