影響中國夏季降水的前冬北半球中高緯大氣環(huán)流年際變異主模態(tài)

doi:10.12306/2023jms.0042

首頁 > 過刊瀏覽>2024年第44卷第1期 >25-34. DOI:10.12306/2023jms.0042

影響中國夏季降水的前冬北半球中高緯大氣環(huán)流年際變異主模態(tài)
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                        10.12306/2023jms.0042
                    
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中圖分類號:P426.6
基金項(xiàng)目:國家重點(diǎn)研發(fā)計(jì)劃資助項(xiàng)目(2022YFE0106600)

Leading mode of winter Northern Hemisphere mid-to-high latitude atmospheric circulation interannual anomalies affecting following summer precipitation in China

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本文利用觀測和再分析資料,通過奇異值分解(Singular Value Decomposition, SVD)分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)北極濤動(Arctic Oscillation, AO)是顯著影響中國夏季降水年際異常的前冬中高緯大氣環(huán)流變異的主模態(tài)。AO在冬季發(fā)展成熟,在春季衰亡,在夏季發(fā)生位相反轉(zhuǎn)。AO會導(dǎo)致華北、東北、長江中下游和華南夏季降水異常呈現(xiàn)三極型分布。伴隨正位相的AO,在黃海至日本海上空的異常低壓伴隨的東北風(fēng)異常引起華北和東北水汽通量異常輻散及降水減少,而西北太平洋的異常高壓不僅增強(qiáng)其北側(cè)的西南風(fēng)水汽輸送,和北部異常低壓共同作用導(dǎo)致長江中下游水汽通量異常輻合及降水增加,而且使得華南水汽通量異常輻散,降水減少。因此,本文發(fā)現(xiàn)的前冬AO模態(tài)與我國夏季三極型異常降水分布的關(guān)系可為我國夏季旱澇預(yù)測提供一個(gè)重要的中高緯前期因子。

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By using Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) analysis with observational and reanalysis data,this paper found that the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is the leading mode of the preceeding winter atmospheric circulation variations in the Northern Hemisphere mid-to-high latitude that significantly affacts the interannual anomalies of summer precipitation in China.In general,AO matures in winter,decays in spring,and turns into an opposite phase in summer.AO tends to cause a tripole pattern of summer precipitation anomalies in North China,Northeast China,the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River,and South China.Corresponding to a positive phase of AO,an anomalous atmospheric cyclone prevailing over the Yellow Sea and the Japan Sea makes an anomalous northeasterly moisture flux divergence over northern China,causing negative precipitation anomalies there.Meanwhile,the anomalous atmospheric cyclone is accompanied by an anomalous atmospheric anticyclone over Northwest Pacific Ocean,causing an anomalous moisture flux convergence over middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley and thus positive precipitation anomalies there.In addition,the anomalous atmospheric anticyclone over Northwest Pacific Ocean also makes an anomalous southwesterly moisture flux divergence over southern China,causing negative precipitation anomalies there.Therefore,the relationship between the tripole pattern of China summer precipitation anomalies and the preceding winter AO found in this study offers a crucial mid-to-high latitude predictor for pratical prediction of flood/drought in China.

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王雅媛,楊修群,羅悅,趙萌初.影響中國夏季降水的前冬北半球中高緯大氣環(huán)流年際變異主模態(tài).氣象科學(xué),2024,44(1):25-34 WANG Yayuan, YANG Xiuqun, LUO Yue, ZHAO Mengchu. Leading mode of winter Northern Hemisphere mid-to-high latitude atmospheric circulation interannual anomalies affecting following summer precipitation in China. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2024,44(1):25-34

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收稿日期:2023-05-11
最后修改日期:2023-05-19
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2024-03-13
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