青藏高原及周邊地區(qū)極端降水天氣事件及其基于自組織特征映射方法的天氣背景分型

doi:10.12306/2022jms.0072

首頁 > 過刊瀏覽>2024年第44卷第1期 >94-105. DOI:10.12306/2022jms.0072

青藏高原及周邊地區(qū)極端降水天氣事件及其基于自組織特征映射方法的天氣背景分型
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                        10.12306/2022jms.0072
                    
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中圖分類號(hào):P426.6
基金項(xiàng)目:國家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目(91937301;41775054);國家重點(diǎn)研發(fā)計(jì)劃資助項(xiàng)目(2017YFC1501603)

Extreme precipitation weather events in the Qinghai Tibet Plateau and its surrounding areas and weather background classification based on self-organizing feature mapping

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利用2008-2014年中國自動(dòng)站與CMORPH降水產(chǎn)品融合資料和NCEP再分析資料,基于自組織特征映射方法對青藏高原及周邊地區(qū)的6 h極端降水天氣進(jìn)行了統(tǒng)計(jì)分析。發(fā)現(xiàn)6 h極端降水的高值和高頻次主要分布在青藏高原西南部和東南部,以及東南側(cè)的四川盆地和南側(cè)沿喜馬拉雅山至橫斷山脈一帶。6 h極端降水在高原西南部多發(fā)生在14時(shí)(北京時(shí),下同),在東南部多發(fā)生在20時(shí),而在四川盆地和南側(cè)主要發(fā)生在08時(shí)。采用自組織特征映射方法將2008-2014年高原及周邊地區(qū)6 h分辨率的天氣背景分為5類,類型I至類型V體現(xiàn)了從夏季-春秋-冬季的漸變,6 h極端降水天氣事件發(fā)生比率依類遞減。高原上總的極端降水主要來自類型I的高原極端降水,類型II及以下的高原極端降水落區(qū)逐類縮減并趨于沿岡底斯山零散分布。對比各類型的天氣背景發(fā)現(xiàn),高原上類型II及以下的動(dòng)力強(qiáng)迫較類型I逐漸增強(qiáng),但是暖心、濕度和對流有效位能等有利熱力條件卻依類明顯縮減,使得高原極端降水落區(qū)依類迅速縮減。有利熱力條件的分布與大范圍極端降水的落區(qū)有很好的對應(yīng)關(guān)系,熱力條件減弱后,動(dòng)力條件的增強(qiáng)及其與高原復(fù)雜地形的相互作用是導(dǎo)致零散極端降水的重要原因。四川盆地和高原南側(cè)的對流有效位能明顯高于高原內(nèi),高原在周邊的強(qiáng)迫抬升易于觸發(fā)對流不穩(wěn)定,釋放較高的對流有效位能,形成較強(qiáng)和較頻繁的極端降水天氣事件。

Abstract:

This paper makes a statistical analysis of the 6-hour extreme precipitation weather events on the Qinghai Tibet Plateau and its surrounding areas based on self-organizing feature mapping,by using precipitation products from observations of China automatic stations and CMORPH and NCEP reanalysis data during 2008-2014.It is found that the high value and frequency of 6-hour extreme precipitation are mainly distributed in the Southwest and Southeast of the plateau,the Sichuan Basin on the southeast side of the plateau and the area along the Himalayas to Hengduan Mountains on the south side of the plateau.The 6-hour extreme precipitation mostly occurred at 14:00 BST in the southwest of the plateau,at 20:00 BST in the southeast of the plateau,and at 08:00 BST in the Sichuan Basin and on the south side of the plateau.Using the self-organizing feature mapping method,the weather background in 6-hour interval over the plateau and its surrounding areas from 2008 to 2014 is divided into five types.The weather background types from Ⅰ to Ⅴ reflect the gradual change from summer to spring/autumn to winter,and the occurrence rate of 6-hour extreme precipitation weather events decreases as the weather type number increases.The total 6-hour extreme precipitation on the plateau mainly comes from that of type Ⅰ,and the area of 6-hour extreme precipitation decreases gradully from type Ⅱ to higher type number and tends to be scattered along the Gangdise mountain.Comparison of the weathe types shows that the dynamic forcing becomes stronger from type Ⅰ to higher type number,while the favorable thermal conditions of warm center,humidity and convective available potential energy are significantly reduced,this results in the obvious reduction of extreme precipitation areas on the plateau type by type.The distribution of favorable thermal conditions has a good relationship with the larger area of 6-hour extreme precipitation.As the thermal conditions weaken,the stronger dynamic conditions interacting with the complex terrain are important for the scattered extreme precipitation on the plateau.The convective available potential energy in the Sichuan Basin and on the south side of the plateau is significantly higher than that in the plateau.It is easy for the uplift forcing induced by the plateau to trigger convective instability,release more convective available potential energy and form stronger and more frequent extreme precipitation weather events.

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辛鵬超,央珍,王其偉,張熠.青藏高原及周邊地區(qū)極端降水天氣事件及其基于自組織特征映射方法的天氣背景分型.氣象科學(xué),2024,44(1):94-105 XIN Pengchao, YANG Zhen, WANG Qiwei, ZHANG Yi. Extreme precipitation weather events in the Qinghai Tibet Plateau and its surrounding areas and weather background classification based on self-organizing feature mapping. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2024,44(1):94-105

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收稿日期:2022-04-17
最后修改日期:2022-09-02
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2024-03-13
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