全球變暖背景下北極海冰與東亞冬季風(fēng)關(guān)系的變化及其機制

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全球變暖背景下北極海冰與東亞冬季風(fēng)關(guān)系的變化及其機制
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中圖分類號:P731;P434
基金項目:國家自然科學(xué)基金基礎(chǔ)科學(xué)中心項目(42088101);國家級大學(xué)生創(chuàng)新創(chuàng)業(yè)訓(xùn)練計劃支持項目(202310300001Z)

Changes of relationship between Arctic sea ice and East Asian winter monsoon under global warming and their mechanisms

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為了進一步了解全球變暖背景下北極海冰與東亞冬季風(fēng)的關(guān)系及其變化,本文選用東亞冬季風(fēng)北模態(tài)及南模態(tài)作為東亞冬季風(fēng)指數(shù),利用滑動相關(guān)分析、回歸分析及合成分析研究了全球變暖背景下1953—2021年北極海冰密集度與東亞冬季風(fēng)關(guān)系的變化特征及其機制。結(jié)果表明:11月巴倫支海海冰密集度與東亞冬季風(fēng)北模態(tài)之間的關(guān)系發(fā)生了顯著變化,從1962—1977年顯著正相關(guān)轉(zhuǎn)為1983—1999年顯著負(fù)相關(guān),2000年以后兩者無顯著關(guān)系。1962—1977年11月巴倫支海海冰偏多對應(yīng)東亞冬季風(fēng)偏強,這是大氣環(huán)流影響海冰的結(jié)果,11月的大氣環(huán)流異常特征維持到了冬季,使得歐亞大陸上空大氣呈現(xiàn)出北極濤動(Arctic Oscillation,AO)負(fù)位相,在增強東亞冬季風(fēng)的同時將中高緯大陸干冷空氣輸送至巴倫支海,在表面風(fēng)應(yīng)力的作用下巴倫支海海冰增多。1983—1999年則由前一時期的大氣環(huán)流影響海冰變?yōu)楹１绊懘髿猸h(huán)流,11月巴倫支海海冰顯著減少在冬季激發(fā)出了北極濤動負(fù)位相,加強東亞大槽及東亞高空西風(fēng)急流,從而使得東亞冬季風(fēng)偏強。2000年以后北極海冰與東亞冬季風(fēng)北模態(tài)的關(guān)系明顯減弱,此時東亞冬季風(fēng)與北極濤動的負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系更為顯著。

Abstract:

In order to further understand the relationship between Arctic sea ice and East Asian Winter Monsoon(EAWM), as well as its variations under global warming, this paper investigated variation features and mechanisms of the relationship between Arctic sea ice concentration and EAWM during the period of 1953-2021 by using slide correlation analysis, linear regression and composite analysis, together with the EAWM north mode and south mode selected to measure the intensity and variation of EAWM. Results detected significant changes of the relationship between Barents Sea's sea ice concentration in November and EAWM north mode from positive correlation during 1962-1977 to negative correlation during 1983-1999 and to insignificant relationship after 2000. With regard to mechanisms of the changes during 1962-1977, when November Barents Sea ice concentration and EAWM showed positive correlation, the anomalous atmospheric circulations in November maintained till winter and caused negative phase of Arctic Oscillation(AO) on Eurasian continent, which strengthened EAWM and transferred the cold dry air from mid-to-high latitude Eurasian mainland to Barents sea at the meantime, thus causing the sea ice concentration to increase. The negative correlation during 1983-1999, on the contrary, was the result of sea ice concentration's impact on EAWM. Sea ice concentration in Barents Sea significantly decreased and further induced negative phase of AO in winter, thus strengthening EAWM by strengthening East Asian trough and East Asian westerly jet. The relationship between Arctic sea ice and EAWM after 2000 was insignificant, during which the relationship between EAWM and AO became more significant. This article investigated changes of the relationship between Arctic sea ice and EAWM, which can help better understand and predict the interannual variation of EAWM.

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鄭帥,孫博,邱振鵬,吳文星.全球變暖背景下北極海冰與東亞冬季風(fēng)關(guān)系的變化及其機制.氣象科學(xué),2024,44(2):199-209 ZHENG Shuai, SUN Bo, QIU Zhenpeng, WU Wenxing. Changes of relationship between Arctic sea ice and East Asian winter monsoon under global warming and their mechanisms. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2024,44(2):199-209

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收稿日期:2024-01-14
最后修改日期:2024-03-01
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2024-05-17
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