不同數(shù)值模式對(duì)江淮地區(qū)梅汛期暴雨模擬的對(duì)比分析

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不同數(shù)值模式對(duì)江淮地區(qū)梅汛期暴雨模擬的對(duì)比分析
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中圖分類號(hào):P458.121.1
基金項(xiàng)目:國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金重大資助項(xiàng)目 (42192553)

Comparison and analysis of different numerical models for rainstorm simulation during Jianghuai Meiyu period

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從降水偏差特征、預(yù)報(bào)技巧和對(duì)象診斷分析3個(gè)角度評(píng)估了歐洲中期天氣預(yù)報(bào)中心模式(EC)、華東區(qū)域中心區(qū)域數(shù)值模式(WARMS)和江蘇區(qū)域模式(PWAFS)對(duì)2020年江淮地區(qū)梅汛期11次典型暴雨過(guò)程的預(yù)報(bào)性能,并分析了各模式的優(yōu)點(diǎn)及不足。結(jié)果表明:(1)24 h觀測(cè)日平均累計(jì)降水主要分布在大別山—江蘇淮北以及大別山—皖南山區(qū),相應(yīng)的模式降水偏差大值區(qū)與主要雨帶位置有較好的對(duì)應(yīng)關(guān)系,其中,EC在大別山和皖南山區(qū)存在明顯干偏差,在江蘇淮北地區(qū)則出現(xiàn)系統(tǒng)性北偏。WARMS和PWAFS兩種區(qū)域模式均在大別山和皖南山區(qū)上游地區(qū)和下游浙江地區(qū)出現(xiàn)大范圍濕偏差,而在江蘇淮北地區(qū)出現(xiàn)干偏差;(2)24 h預(yù)報(bào)技巧評(píng)分結(jié)果表明,EC對(duì)暴雨及以下量級(jí)的TS評(píng)分最高,但大暴雨量級(jí)PWAFS最優(yōu),原因是EC對(duì)大暴雨量級(jí)出現(xiàn)較高漏報(bào)。對(duì)比WARMS和PWAFS兩家區(qū)域模式可見(jiàn),PWAFS在幾乎各量級(jí)的空?qǐng)?bào)和漏報(bào)率都低于WARMS,因此TS評(píng)分也高于WARMS;(3)通過(guò)MODE對(duì)象診斷分析發(fā)現(xiàn),EC對(duì)降水位置預(yù)報(bào)最穩(wěn)定,PWAFS對(duì)降水強(qiáng)度和范圍的預(yù)報(bào)效果最優(yōu),但對(duì)雨帶位置的預(yù)報(bào)不夠穩(wěn)定?？偟脕?lái)說(shuō),PWAFS的預(yù)報(bào)性能略優(yōu)于WARMS,與EC相比在對(duì)降水強(qiáng)度和雨帶范圍的刻畫(huà)上也具有優(yōu)勢(shì),但預(yù)報(bào)穩(wěn)定性尚有待提高。

Abstract:

This paper evaluates the prediction performance of the European Central Numerical Model (EC), the East China Regional Central Regional Numerical Model (WARMS) and the Jiangsu Regional Model (PWAFS) for 11 typical rainstorm processes in the Meiyu season in the Yangtze Huaihe River region in 2020 from three perspectives of precipitation deviation characteristics, prediction skills and object diagnosis analysis, and the advantages and disadvantages of each model were analyzed. Results show that: (1) the daily average accumulated precipitation observed in 24 hours is mainly distributed in the Dabie Mountains-Huaibei, Jiangsu Province and the Dabie Mountains-southern Anhui Province. The corresponding area with the maximum value of the model precipitation deviation has a good correspondence with the location of the main rain belt. Among them, EC has a significant dry deviation in the Dabie Mountains and southern Anhui Province, while in Huaibei and Jiangsu Province, there is a systematic north deviation. Both WARMS and PWAFS regional models have a large range of wet deviations in the upper reaches of the Dabie Mountains and southern Anhui mountains and in the lower reaches of Zhejiang Province, while they have a dry deviation in the Huaibei region of Jiangsu Province; (2) the scoring results of 24-hour prediction skills show that the TS score of EC for rainstorm level and below is the highest, while PWAFS is the best for heavy rainstorm level because of the high frequency of missing report of EC for heavy rainstorm. Comparing the two regional models of WARMS and PWAFS, it can be seen that PWAFS has lower missing report and false report rates at almost all levels than WARMS, so its TS score is also higher than that of WARMS; (3) through the diagnosis and analysis of MODE objects, it is found that EC has the most stable precipitation location prediction, PWAFS has the best prediction effect of precipitation intensity and range, but the forecast of rain band location is not stable enough. In general, the prediction performance of PWAFS is slightly better than that of WARMS. Compared with EC, PWAFS also has advantages in describing precipitation intensity and rain band range, but the prediction stability needs to be improved.

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張文月,閔錦忠.不同數(shù)值模式對(duì)江淮地區(qū)梅汛期暴雨模擬的對(duì)比分析.氣象科學(xué),2024,44(2):328-337 ZHANG Wenyue, MIN Jinzhong. Comparison and analysis of different numerical models for rainstorm simulation during Jianghuai Meiyu period. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2024,44(2):328-337

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收稿日期:2023-02-26
最后修改日期:2023-05-21
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2024-05-17
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