基于ConvLSTM的西北太平洋海表溫度中短期預(yù)報(bào)

首頁(yè) > 過(guò)刊瀏覽>2024年第44卷第2期 >375-381

基于ConvLSTM的西北太平洋海表溫度中短期預(yù)報(bào)
DOI:
                        
CSTR:
                        
作者:
                        
作者單位:
作者簡(jiǎn)介:
通訊作者:
中圖分類號(hào):P456
基金項(xiàng)目:國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目(42075035; 41675077; 41605072)

Short-medium-term forecast of SST over western North Pacific based on ConvLSTM

Author:

Affiliation:

Fund Project:

摘要

圖/表

訪問(wèn)統(tǒng)計(jì)

參考文獻(xiàn)

相似文獻(xiàn)

引證文獻(xiàn)

資源附件

文章評(píng)論

摘要:

盡管海表溫度(Sea Surface Temperature,SST)短期變化較小,但這種變化對(duì)海洋渦旋、海洋鋒以及熱帶氣旋的發(fā)生發(fā)展仍有著重要的影響,因此短期SST預(yù)報(bào)意義重大,且對(duì)預(yù)報(bào)精度的要求較高。本文基于ConvLSTM的深度學(xué)習(xí)模型,利用SST和溫度平流雙預(yù)報(bào)因子對(duì)西北太平洋劃定區(qū)域內(nèi)SST進(jìn)行7 d的連續(xù)預(yù)報(bào),將其結(jié)果與僅使用SST預(yù)報(bào)因子ConvLSTM以及混合坐標(biāo)海洋模型(HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model,HYCOM)的預(yù)報(bào)結(jié)果分別進(jìn)行了對(duì)比。結(jié)果表明,在7 d的預(yù)報(bào)時(shí)效內(nèi),溫度平流預(yù)報(bào)因子的加入可使得ConvLSTM模型預(yù)報(bào)技巧大幅提升,明顯優(yōu)于HYCOM模式。此外,本文將預(yù)報(bào)時(shí)效進(jìn)一步延長(zhǎng)至30 d,對(duì)模型在不同季節(jié)的預(yù)報(bào)能力進(jìn)行了分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)ConvLSTM模型在春、秋季(夏、冬季)的預(yù)報(bào)效果相對(duì)較好(差)。

Abstract:

Despite of the small change in short-term variation of Sea Surface Temperature (SST), the change plays an important role in determining the occurrence and development of ocean vortices, ocean fronts and tropical cyclones. Therefore, short-term SST forecast is of great significance and requires high accuracy. In this study, to make a continuous forecast of 7-day SST over a certain area in western North Pacific, a deep learning model based on the ConvLSTM was adopted by using the two features, namely, SST and temperature advection. The forecast results of this two-feature ConvLSTM were compared with not only those of one-feature (i.e., SST) ConvLSTM but also those of HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). Results show that, within the 7-day forecast time, the addition of the temperature advection feature can largely improve the forecast skill of ConvLSTM, which even beyond HYCOM. Moreover, this study extended the forecasting time to 30 days, and analyzed the forecast skill of the ConvLSTM model in different seasons. It was found that the ConvLSTM model exhibits relatively high (low)forecast skill in spring and autumn (summer and winter).

參考文獻(xiàn)

相似文獻(xiàn)

引證文獻(xiàn)

引用本文

胡楠,孫源,張永垂,鐘中.基于ConvLSTM的西北太平洋海表溫度中短期預(yù)報(bào).氣象科學(xué),2024,44(2):375-381 HU Nan, SUN Yuan, ZHANG Yongchui, ZHONG Zhong. Short-medium-term forecast of SST over western North Pacific based on ConvLSTM. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2024,44(2):375-381

復(fù)制

文章指標(biāo)

點(diǎn)擊次數(shù):
下載次數(shù):
HTML閱讀次數(shù):
引用次數(shù):

歷史

收稿日期:2022-06-20
最后修改日期:2022-07-11
錄用日期:
在線發(fā)布日期: 2024-05-17
出版日期:

文章二維碼

您是第位訪問(wèn)者
氣象科學(xué) ® 2026 版權(quán)所有
技術(shù)支持：北京勤云科技發(fā)展有限公司

抽查舔水白紧大视频,冲喜娘子超甜哒激情五月,亚洲黄色图片偷拍网站,亚洲三级黄片免费播放,91在线观看喷潮红桃,日韩精品在线观看一区二区,久久久久久久久久久久黄色片子,日产精品99久久久久久久久,欧洲亚洲另类图片小说

引用本文

分享

相關(guān)視頻

文章指標(biāo)

歷史

文章二維碼

抽查舔水白紧大视频,冲喜娘子超甜哒 激情五月,亚洲黄色图片偷拍网站,亚洲三级黄片免费播放,91在线观看喷潮红桃,日韩精品在线观看一区二区,久久久久久久久久久久黄色片子,日产精品99久久久久久久久,欧洲亚洲另类图片小说

引用本文

分享

相關(guān)視頻

文章指標(biāo)

歷史

文章二維碼

抽查舔水白紧大视频,冲喜娘子超甜哒激情五月,亚洲黄色图片偷拍网站,亚洲三级黄片免费播放,91在线观看喷潮红桃,日韩精品在线观看一区二区,久久久久久久久久久久黄色片子,日产精品99久久久久久久久,欧洲亚洲另类图片小说