CMIP6模式對北太平洋中緯度海洋鋒強度與冬季風暴軸關(guān)系的模擬及預估

doi:10.12306/2023jms.0035

首頁 > 過刊瀏覽>2024年第44卷第3期 >420-430. DOI:10.12306/2023jms.0035

CMIP6模式對北太平洋中緯度海洋鋒強度與冬季風暴軸關(guān)系的模擬及預估
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                        10.12306/2023jms.0035
                    
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中圖分類號:P434;P732
基金項目:國家自然科學基金資助項目(42005025);國防科技大學科研計劃資助項目(ZK20-34);國家重點研發(fā)計劃資助項目(2022YFF0801702)

Simulation and projection of the relationship between the North Pacific mid-latitude oceanic frontal intensity and the wintertime storm track based on the CMIP6 model

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本文利用參與第六次國際耦合模式比較計劃(CMIP6)的高分辨率氣候模式CNRM-CM6-1-HR資料,對北太平洋中緯度海洋鋒強度與冬季風暴軸的關(guān)系開展模擬和預估。研究發(fā)現(xiàn),該模式能夠較好地再現(xiàn)海洋鋒強度與風暴軸的正相關(guān)關(guān)系,即當海洋鋒加強(減弱)時,風暴軸在其主體及下游區(qū)域顯著增強(削弱),但模擬的正相關(guān)關(guān)系在風暴軸北部強于觀測,這是由于模擬的海洋鋒強度與低層大氣斜壓性的正相關(guān)關(guān)系在其北部偏強。對比模式在歷史試驗和未來4種共享社會經(jīng)濟路徑(SSPs)下的模擬結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn),全球變暖背景下,海洋鋒強度與風暴軸依然存在顯著的正相關(guān)關(guān)系,但在風暴軸氣候態(tài)大值區(qū)及其北部區(qū)域呈現(xiàn)減弱趨勢,正相關(guān)關(guān)系減弱程度在高輻射強迫情景(SSP5-8.5)下最大,在中等至高輻射強迫情景(SSP3-7.0)下最小。進一步研究發(fā)現(xiàn),未來海洋鋒強度與低層大氣斜壓性的正相關(guān)關(guān)系呈現(xiàn)出類似的減弱趨勢,說明未來海洋鋒與風暴軸關(guān)系的變化主要取決于海洋鋒與低層大氣斜壓性關(guān)系的變化。

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In this study, the relationship between the North Pacific mid-latitude oceanic frontal intensity and the wintertime storm track was simulated and projected based on a CMIP6 high-resolution climate model CNRM-CM6-1-HR. Results show that the model well reproduces the positive correlation between the oceanic frontal intensity and the storm track. The storm track activity is intensified (weakened) in its climatological peak and downstream as the oceanic front strengthens (weakens). However, the simulated positive correlation is stronger than the observation in the storm track northern region, which is mainly attributed to the greater positive correlation between the oceanic frontal intensity and the near-surface baroclinicity. By comparing the relationship between the oceanic frontal intensity and the storm track under four different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) with the historical run, it is found that there tends to exist the significant positive correlation under global warming, while the correlation will weaken in the storm track climatology and northern region, with the largest reduction in the high radiation scenario (SSP5-8.5) and the least reduction in the medium to high radiation scenario (SSP3-7.0). Further analysis indicates that the positive correlation between the oceanic frontal intensity and the near-surface baroclinicity also exhibits a similar weakened trend, which suggests that the projected changes in the relationship between the oceanic front and the storm track are mainly determined by the future changes in the relationship between the oceanic front and the near-surface baroclinicity.

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姚瑤,楊修群,黃曉剛. CMIP6模式對北太平洋中緯度海洋鋒強度與冬季風暴軸關(guān)系的模擬及預估.氣象科學,2024,44(3):420-430 YAO Yao, YANG Xiuqun, HUANG Xiaogang. Simulation and projection of the relationship between the North Pacific mid-latitude oceanic frontal intensity and the wintertime storm track based on the CMIP6 model. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2024,44(3):420-430

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收稿日期:2023-02-24
最后修改日期:2023-04-20
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2024-07-16
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