受致災(zāi)氣旋影響的不同規(guī)模等級城市直接經(jīng)濟(jì)損失特征

doi:10.12306/2022jms.0029

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受致災(zāi)氣旋影響的不同規(guī)模等級城市直接經(jīng)濟(jì)損失特征
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                        10.12306/2022jms.0029
                    
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中圖分類號:P49
基金項(xiàng)目:國家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目(42071024);江蘇省研究生科研與事件創(chuàng)新計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(KYCX21_0974)

Characteristics of economic losses at cities in different scales affected by influential tropical cyclones

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本文將造成直接經(jīng)濟(jì)損失的熱帶氣旋定義為致災(zāi)氣旋。依據(jù)城區(qū)常住人口,將我國城市劃分為小城市、中等城市、大城市三種規(guī)模等級,基于1984—2019年熱帶氣旋災(zāi)情和路徑數(shù)據(jù)篩選出致災(zāi)氣旋,分析我國城市的致災(zāi)氣旋頻次、強(qiáng)度,并研究致災(zāi)氣旋造成的不同規(guī)模城市直接經(jīng)濟(jì)損失變化。主要結(jié)論為:(1)1984—2019年影響我國城市的致災(zāi)氣旋為7.7個(gè)·a^-1,呈微弱下降趨勢,而強(qiáng)臺風(fēng)和超強(qiáng)臺風(fēng)的發(fā)生頻次呈顯著增加趨勢(α=0.05顯著水平),30°N以南城市頻次整體比北部高;(2)由于致災(zāi)氣旋影響范圍增加,暴露于不同強(qiáng)度致災(zāi)氣旋的城市個(gè)數(shù)呈增加趨勢,其中暴露于強(qiáng)臺風(fēng)的城市個(gè)數(shù)增速最快,約為2.0個(gè)/(10 a);致災(zāi)氣旋影響城市個(gè)數(shù)增加以及城市經(jīng)濟(jì)快速發(fā)展,使得暴露于致災(zāi)氣旋影響范圍內(nèi)的經(jīng)濟(jì)總量迅速增加,以大城市經(jīng)濟(jì)暴露度(占比81.7%)的增速最快(402.6億元·a^-1);(3)1984—2019年致災(zāi)氣旋造成的城市直接經(jīng)濟(jì)損失約為262.3億元·a^-1(以2019年市值),呈增加趨勢;城市經(jīng)濟(jì)快速發(fā)展和高強(qiáng)度致災(zāi)氣旋頻次增加的共同作用下,城市經(jīng)濟(jì)損失占我國致災(zāi)氣旋經(jīng)濟(jì)損失的比重從30.0%增加到63.3%。大城市資產(chǎn)財(cái)富集中,且多位于沿海地區(qū),致災(zāi)氣旋發(fā)生頻次較多,經(jīng)濟(jì)損失占比最大(為51.4%),增速最快(為5.2億元·a^-1)。

Abstract:

Tropical cyclone is one of the dominant natural disasters in China which trigger huge economic losses and casualties every year. In this paper, tropical cyclones that cause substantial economic losses are defined as Influential Tropical Cyclones (ITCs). Furthermore, considering the population in the urban area, cities in China are divided into three levels: small, medium, and large cities. However, the pivotal aspect of this study is to investigate the frequency and intensity of ITCs and the changes in the associated economic losses at different cities in China. In this regard, ITCs are selected based on significant economic losses, and cyclone track data that befallen from 1984 to 2019. Results elucidate that: (1) the number of ITCs affecting cities from 1984 to 2019 was 7.7 per year. No significant increasing trend in annual frequency was evident (slight decreasing trend), whereas the frequency of strong typhoons and super typhoons showed a significant increasing trend (at 0.05 significant level). In the spatial aspect, the frequency of ITCs in cities of southern part (30°N) was higher than that in the northern. (2) Due to the enlarged impact range of ITCs, the number of cities exposed to ITCs with different intensities showed increasing tendency, with exposure to intense typhoons was the fastest (about 2.0/(10 a)). Meanwhile, growth rate of the economic exposure of large cities, which accounted for the largest proportion (81.7%), was the fastest (40.26 billion/a). (3) The direct economic loss of cities caused by the ITCs was about 26.23 billion/a (in 2019 market value), and showing an increasing trend from 1984 to 2019. Under the combined effect of the rapid urban economic development and the increase in the frequency of intense ITCs, the proportion of urban economic losses in the total economic losses of ITCs in China has increased from 30.0% to 63.3%. Note that the large cities located along the coastal region prone to be affected frequently by ITCs, account for the largest proportion (51.4%) and the fastest growth rate (0.52 billion/a) of economic losses for 1984-2019.

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趙慶慶,姜彤,蘇布達(dá),王艷君,翟建青.受致災(zāi)氣旋影響的不同規(guī)模等級城市直接經(jīng)濟(jì)損失特征.氣象科學(xué),2024,44(3):583-592 ZHAO Qingqing, JIANG Tong, SU Buda, WANG Yanjun, ZHAI Jianqing. Characteristics of economic losses at cities in different scales affected by influential tropical cyclones. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2024,44(3):583-592

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收稿日期:2022-01-22
最后修改日期:2022-03-14
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2024-07-16
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