南京市日最高氣溫對支氣管和心血管類疾病就診人數(shù)的影響

doi:10.12306/2024jms.0002

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南京市日最高氣溫對支氣管和心血管類疾病就診人數(shù)的影響
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                        10.12306/2024jms.0002
                    
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中圖分類號:R122.26; P49
基金項目:中國氣象局公共氣象服務(wù)中心創(chuàng)新基金項目(M2023007)

Effect of daily maximum temperature on the number of patients with bronchial and cardiovascular diseases in Nanjing

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融合應(yīng)用分布滯后非線性模型(Distributed Lag Mon-linear Model,DLNM)與廣義相加模型(Generalized Additive Model,GAM),在控制新冠疫情影響、節(jié)假日效應(yīng)、星期效應(yīng)、長期趨勢以及大氣污染因子等因素基礎(chǔ)上,探究了2018—2020年南京市日最高氣溫與當(dāng)?shù)刂夤茴悺⑿难茴惣膊【驮\人數(shù)的暴露反應(yīng)關(guān)系,包括滯后效應(yīng)和累積效應(yīng)。結(jié)果表明:對于支氣管類疾病,冬季為高風(fēng)險期,低溫的即時效應(yīng)和累積效應(yīng)顯著;中短期累積作用下,氣溫越低危險性越大;長期累積作用下,10 ℃左右的危險性最大;高溫累積效應(yīng)不顯著,30 ℃左右滯后效應(yīng)顯著。對于心血管類疾病,低溫的即時效應(yīng)和累積效應(yīng)顯著,11~12 ℃左右影響的累積效應(yīng)和持續(xù)性最強;高溫的滯后效應(yīng)顯著,溫度越高,滯后效應(yīng)越明顯;長期暴露于高溫環(huán)境的患病風(fēng)險會快速增加,日最高氣溫32 ℃左右的暴露累積風(fēng)險最大。針對這兩類疾病,當(dāng)日最高氣溫在22~24 ℃范圍內(nèi),屬于人體最舒適溫度。

Abstract:

Combining the Distributed Lag Non-linear Model (DLNM) and the Generalized Additive Model (GAM), based on controlling the impacts of the COVID-19, holiday effect, week effect, long-term trend, air pollution factors and other mixed factors, this study explored the exposure response relationship between the daily maximum temperature in Nanjing and the number of local patients with bronchial and cardiovascular diseases from 2018 to 2020, including the lag effect and cumulative effect. Results indicate that for bronchial diseases, winter is a high-risk period, and the immediate and cumulative effects of low temperature are significant; under the short-term cumulative effect, the lower the temperature, the greater the danger; under long-term accumulation, the danger is the highest at around 10 ℃; the cumulative effect of high temperature is not significant, and the hysteresis effect is significant around 30 ℃. For cardiovascular diseases, the immediate and cumulative effects of low temperature are significant, with the cumulative and sustained effects being the strongest around 11-12 ℃; the hysteresis effect of high temperature is significant, and the higher the temperature, the more pronounced the hysteresis effect; the risk of illness increases rapidly when exposed to high temperature environments for a long time, with the cumulative risk of exposure being highest at around 32 ℃ per day. For these two types of diseases, the highest temperature on the day ranges from 22 to 24 ℃, which is the most comfortable temperature for the human body.

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單嬋,王子昕,王雁君,桑小卓,姚阮,艾文文.南京市日最高氣溫對支氣管和心血管類疾病就診人數(shù)的影響.氣象科學(xué),2024,44(3):593-602 SHAN Chan, WANG Zixin, WANG Yanjun, SANG Xiaozhuo, YAO Ruan, AI Wenwen. Effect of daily maximum temperature on the number of patients with bronchial and cardiovascular diseases in Nanjing. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2024,44(3):593-602

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收稿日期:2023-09-22
最后修改日期:2023-11-21
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2024-07-16
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