鄱陽湖老爺廟沉船事件的氣象條件分析

doi:10.12306/2021jms.0100

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鄱陽湖老爺廟沉船事件的氣象條件分析
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                        10.12306/2021jms.0100
                    
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中圖分類號:P434.5
基金項目:國家自然科學(xué)基金資助項目(41475062)

Analysis of meteorological conditions for shipwrecks in Laoyemiao waters of Poyang Lake

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本文利用1959—2015年鄱陽湖老爺廟水域及其周邊6個氣象站的逐日觀測資料、鄱陽湖星子自動氣象站逐小時觀測資料、歷史天氣圖及臺風(fēng)路徑資料,對1973—2014年8次老爺廟水域沉船事件的氣象條件進(jìn)行分析,得到以下結(jié)論:(1)老爺廟水域的風(fēng)速和風(fēng)向與地形及特定天氣系統(tǒng)密切相關(guān),風(fēng)場變化復(fù)雜,大風(fēng)較多;(2)8次沉船事件都與大風(fēng)有關(guān),分別發(fā)生在冬半年冷空氣(冷高壓)與鋒面等主要天氣系統(tǒng)過境和夏半年易受熱帶氣旋影響的時段,且冷空氣的強(qiáng)弱與事故無明顯關(guān)聯(lián);(3)老爺廟水域的大風(fēng)易形成較大的浪高,8次事件的最大可能浪高均超過1 m,突發(fā)風(fēng)浪是導(dǎo)致航船失事的重要原因;(4)老爺廟水域大風(fēng)及風(fēng)向的變化頻繁,由此引起的波浪突然改變增大了老爺廟水域船舶航行的風(fēng)險。

Abstract:

Based on daily meteorological data of six observation stations surrounding Laoyemiao waters from 1959 to 2015, hourly observation data at Poyang Lake Xingzi automatic meteorological station, the historical surface weather map of the Asia Pacific region, and the western North Pacific tropical cyclone database, the possible causes of 8 shipwrecks in Laoyemiao water area since 1970 from the perspective of meteorology were analyzed. Results show that changes of wind speed, direction and seasonal gales in Laoyemiao waters are closely related to the local topography and special synoptic systems. The eight shipwrecks were all associated with strong winds, occurring in the winter half year when cold air (cold high pressure) and fronts are the main transit weather systems, and in the summer half year when they are susceptible to tropical cyclones. The wave height in Laoyemiao waters is highly related to the strong winds, and all maximum wave heights causing 8 shipwrecks are higher than 1 m. Strong winds and their frequent changes in direction lead to sudden increase of wind and changes of wave height and/or wave propagation direction in Laoyemiao waters, causing the vessel to be suddenly subjected to crosswind and wave action.

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程永峰,陳星.鄱陽湖老爺廟沉船事件的氣象條件分析.氣象科學(xué),2024,44(4):673-683 CHENG Yongfeng, CHEN Xing. Analysis of meteorological conditions for shipwrecks in Laoyemiao waters of Poyang Lake. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2024,44(4):673-683

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收稿日期:2021-12-07
最后修改日期:2021-12-10
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2024-09-23
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