基于分鐘級大氣可降水量的降水可預(yù)報(bào)性探究

doi:10.12306/2023jms.0088

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基于分鐘級大氣可降水量的降水可預(yù)報(bào)性探究
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                        10.12306/2023jms.0088
                    
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中圖分類號:P407;P426.6
基金項(xiàng)目:中國氣象局預(yù)報(bào)員專項(xiàng)(FPZJ2023-009;FPZJ2023-005);中國氣象局水文氣象重點(diǎn)開放實(shí)驗(yàn)室開放研究課題資助項(xiàng)目(23SWQXM005);環(huán)渤海區(qū)域海洋氣象科技協(xié)同創(chuàng)新項(xiàng)目(QYXM202314)

Research on the predictability of precipitation based on minute level perceptible water vapor

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為彌補(bǔ)常規(guī)探空信息時(shí)空密度不足及新型觀測資料準(zhǔn)確度低的問題,本文利用地基遙感設(shè)備(風(fēng)廓線雷達(dá)和微波輻射計(jì))數(shù)據(jù)及地面自動站數(shù)據(jù)構(gòu)建了本地比濕垂直廓線;旨在探究不同降水類型下大氣可降水量的變化趨勢相對實(shí)況降水的時(shí)間提前量和量級相關(guān)性,利用比濕廓線計(jì)算了大氣可降水量(Perceptible Water,PW)。結(jié)果表明:超過80%的降水過程在降水發(fā)生前存在PW急升的情況;PW、ΔPW對降水開始及峰值具備時(shí)間節(jié)點(diǎn)的可預(yù)報(bào)性,PW達(dá)到峰值后2 h內(nèi)出現(xiàn)降水的可能性最大;ΔPW峰值與雨強(qiáng)峰值量級呈正相關(guān)性,二者相關(guān)系數(shù)為0.77。初步研究表明,高分辨率的大氣可降水量信息可作為短期臨近預(yù)報(bào)分析的序列資料,可為降水預(yù)報(bào)時(shí)間和量級的判斷提供依據(jù)。

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The local specific humidity profile was constructed by using ground-based remote sensing equipment, which contains wind profile radar and microwave radiometer data and AWS(Automatic Weather Station) to make up for the insufficient space-time density of conventional radiosonde information and the low accuracy of new observation data.Atmospheric Perceptible Water (PW) was calculated by using the specific humidity profile, aiming to explore the time lead and magnitude correlation between the variation trend of PW and actual precipitation under different precipitation types.Results show that:(1) more than 80% of precipitation processes have PW surge before precipitation. (2) PW and ΔPW have the predictability of time node for the beginning and peak of precipitation, and the precipitation is most likely to occur within two hours after PW reaches the peak.(3) The peak value of ΔPW is positively correlated with the peak value of rainfall intensity, and the correlation coefficient is 0.77.The preliminary study shows that the high resolution information of PW can be used as the sequence data of short-term forecast analysis, and can be used as the reference for quantitative judgment of precipitation forecast.

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林曉萌,劉一瑋,陳宏,董暢.基于分鐘級大氣可降水量的降水可預(yù)報(bào)性探究.氣象科學(xué),2024,44(4):684-690 LIN Xiaomeng, LIU Yiwei, CHEN Hong, DONG Chang. Research on the predictability of precipitation based on minute level perceptible water vapor. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2024,44(4):684-690

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收稿日期:2023-08-15
最后修改日期:2023-12-05
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2024-09-23
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抽查舔水白紧大视频,冲喜娘子超甜哒激情五月,亚洲黄色图片偷拍网站,亚洲三级黄片免费播放,91在线观看喷潮红桃,日韩精品在线观看一区二区,久久久久久久久久久久黄色片子,日产精品99久久久久久久久,欧洲亚洲另类图片小说