基于敏感承災(zāi)體的雷電災(zāi)害風(fēng)險區(qū)劃因子優(yōu)化研究

doi:10.12306/2023jms.0044

首頁 > 過刊瀏覽>2024年第44卷第4期 >716-722. DOI:10.12306/2023jms.0044

基于敏感承災(zāi)體的雷電災(zāi)害風(fēng)險區(qū)劃因子優(yōu)化研究
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                        10.12306/2023jms.0044
                    
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中圖分類號:P429
基金項目:江蘇省氣象局面上資助項目(KM202309);江蘇省自然科學(xué)基金資助項目(BK20191094)

Optimization of lightning disaster risk assessment parameters based on vulnerable objects

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雷電災(zāi)害風(fēng)險評估和區(qū)劃是當(dāng)前全國第一次自然災(zāi)害風(fēng)險普查工作的重要內(nèi)容。針對試點區(qū)縣普查中發(fā)現(xiàn)的《雷電災(zāi)害調(diào)查與風(fēng)險評估技術(shù)規(guī)范》中指標(biāo)選取、指標(biāo)空間精細(xì)度等方面存在的值得商榷和改進之處,本文提出以下優(yōu)化方案:(1)致災(zāi)危險性因子選取優(yōu)化:致災(zāi)危險性因子僅使用閃電定位觀測數(shù)據(jù)。(2)承災(zāi)體暴露度因子空間尺度精細(xì)化:采用1 km×1 km高精度人口和經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)直接進行柵格計算,而不是采用行政區(qū)域均值。(3)承災(zāi)體脆弱性因子選取優(yōu)化:引入了承災(zāi)體類型因子,反映出不同承災(zāi)體類型的雷電災(zāi)害脆弱性和易損性的顯著不同;將場所的防雷裝置設(shè)計審核和按期檢測情況作為防雷減災(zāi)能力考量指標(biāo)。同時,本文以常州市金壇區(qū)為例,使用該技術(shù)方案進行了雷電災(zāi)害風(fēng)險區(qū)劃并與規(guī)范進行對比。結(jié)果表明此方案更加科學(xué)、合理,反映了評估區(qū)域承災(zāi)體的雷電災(zāi)害風(fēng)險特征,也更加符合本次普查和評估區(qū)劃工作精準(zhǔn)施策、針對性開展防雷減災(zāi)工作的初衷。

Abstract:

The risk assessment and zoning of lightning disasters are important contents of the first national natural disaster risk survey. In response to the questionable aspects of the "Technical Specification for Lightning Disaster Investigation and Risk Assessment" in terms of indicator selection and spatial precision in the pilot regions program, this article proposes the following optimization plan: (1) optimization of disaster risk factor selection: only lightning location observation data is used for disaster risk factors. (2) Refinement of spatial scale for exposure factors of disaster prone bodies: 1 km×1 km high-precision population and economic data are directly calculated in a grid format, rather than using administrative regional averages. (3) Optimization of vulnerability factor selection for disaster prone bodies: the introduction of disaster prone body type factor reflects significant differences in lightning disaster vulnerability among different types of disaster prone bodies; take the design review and regular testing of lightning protection devices in the venue as a consideration indicator for lightning protection and disaster reduction capabilities. At the same time, this article takes Jintan District as an example to use this technical scheme for lightning disaster risk zoning and compare it with the standard for discussion. This plan more scientifically and reasonably reflects the risk characteristics of lightning disasters in the assessed area, and is also more in line with the original intention of precise implementation and targeted lightning protection and disaster reduction work in this census and assessment zoning work.

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焦雪,李福洪,周俊馳,張艷華.基于敏感承災(zāi)體的雷電災(zāi)害風(fēng)險區(qū)劃因子優(yōu)化研究.氣象科學(xué),2024,44(4):716-722 JIAO Xue, LI Fuhong, ZHOU Junchi, ZHANG Yanhua. Optimization of lightning disaster risk assessment parameters based on vulnerable objects. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2024,44(4):716-722

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收稿日期:2022-01-10
最后修改日期:2023-07-11
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2024-09-23
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