CMIP6全球氣候模式對(duì)中國(guó)氣溫模擬的BMA方法評(píng)估

doi:10.12306/2022jms.0103

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CMIP6全球氣候模式對(duì)中國(guó)氣溫模擬的BMA方法評(píng)估
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                        10.12306/2022jms.0103
                    
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中圖分類號(hào):P467
基金項(xiàng)目:江蘇省自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目(BK20150922)

Evaluation of BMA for temperature simulation in China by CMIP6 global climate models

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選用CMIP6中13種全球氣候模式數(shù)據(jù),以CN05.1數(shù)據(jù)作為實(shí)測(cè)資料,對(duì)1961—2014年中國(guó)氣溫進(jìn)行模擬及模式能力評(píng)估。采用BMA、泰勒?qǐng)D評(píng)估模式排名,并將BMA與算術(shù)平均(AVG)集合結(jié)果進(jìn)行比較。結(jié)果表明,泰勒?qǐng)D評(píng)分和BMA權(quán)重在最優(yōu)和最劣模式評(píng)價(jià)中基本一致,模擬效果最好的兩種模式為ACCESS-ESM1-5、INM-CM5-0。BMA集合模擬結(jié)果優(yōu)于AVG方法,CN05.1、BMA、AVG方法得到的中國(guó)多年平均氣溫分別為6.18、5.95和4.92 ℃,BMA方法通過(guò)權(quán)重調(diào)節(jié)使整體系統(tǒng)誤差最小。BMA和AVG方法集合的CMIP6氣候模式在對(duì)中國(guó)氣溫模擬的空間分布形式上與實(shí)測(cè)差距不大,而局部地域分布情況有所區(qū)別。BMA方法不僅可以對(duì)CMIP6模式進(jìn)行有效評(píng)估,并且其集合模擬結(jié)果的時(shí)間及空間變化情況都與實(shí)測(cè)值更接近。

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The 13 global climate model in CMIP6 were selected, and CN05.1 data was used as the measured data to simulate China's temperature from 1961 to 2014. The model capabilities were ranked using BMA and Taylor graph, and BMA was compared with the Arithmetic Average (AVG) ensemble results. Results show that the Taylor graph score and BMA weight are basically consistent in the evaluation of the best and worst models, and the two models with the best simulation effect are ACCESS-ESM1-5 and INM-CM5-0. The BMA ensemble results are better than that of AVG. The annual average temperatures in China by CN05.1, BMA and AVG methods are 6.18, 5.95 and 4.92 ℃, respectively. The BMA method minimizes the overall systematic error through weight adjustment. The CMIP6 climate model ensemble of BMA and AVG has little difference between the spatial distribution of China's temperature simulation and the actual measurement, but the regional distributions are different. The BMA method can not only effectively evaluate the CMIP6 models, but also the temporal and spatial changes of the ensemble results are closer to the measured values.

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鄧鵬,王國(guó)復(fù),王國(guó)杰. CMIP6全球氣候模式對(duì)中國(guó)氣溫模擬的BMA方法評(píng)估.氣象科學(xué),2024,44(4):775-782 DENG Peng, WANG Guofu, WANG Guojie. Evaluation of BMA for temperature simulation in China by CMIP6 global climate models. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2024,44(4):775-782

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收稿日期:2022-10-05
最后修改日期:2022-10-28
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2024-09-23
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