一次高原強降水過程的對流尺度集合預(yù)報試驗及診斷分析

doi:10.12306/2023jms.0071

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一次高原強降水過程的對流尺度集合預(yù)報試驗及診斷分析
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                        10.12306/2023jms.0071
                    
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中圖分類號:P456.7
基金項目:國家自然科學(xué)基金資助項目(42275169;42205045);湖南省自然科學(xué)基金資助項目(2022JJ30660)

Convective-scale ensemble forecast experiment and diagnostic analysis of a high-altitude heavy precipitation process

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選取我國西南高原地區(qū)2014年5月9—10日一次致災(zāi)性強降水過程,利用GPM(Global Precipitation Measurement)衛(wèi)星全球逐半小時降水實況數(shù)據(jù)和ERA5(ECMWF Reanalysis v5)等再分析資料,進(jìn)行集合預(yù)報模擬、評估及機理分析。結(jié)果表明:(1)WRF模式較好地再現(xiàn)了此次高原強降水過程,基于BGM(Breeding Growth Mode)和LBGM(Local Breeding Growth Mode)初始擾動方法生成的集合平均預(yù)報對于此次高原強降水過程預(yù)報效果優(yōu)于控制預(yù)報,且LBGM評估結(jié)果更優(yōu);(2)濕位渦的正壓項MPV1和斜壓項MPV2對強降水均有一定的指示意義,850 hPa MPV1負(fù)值區(qū)和MPV2正值區(qū)與降水雨帶的落區(qū)、強度發(fā)展演變有較好的對應(yīng)關(guān)系;(3)LBGM方案對于降水強度的改善優(yōu)于BGM方案,原因之一在于LBGM方案對水汽通量散度和渦度的模擬更合理。

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The GPM (Global Precipitation Measurement) satellite data and ERA5 (ECMWF Reanalysis v5) were used to perform ensemble forecast simulation, evaluation and diagnostic analysis on a severe precipitation event that occurred in the southwest plateau region of China on May 9-10, 2014. Results found that the WRF model successfully reproduces the severe precipitation event, and the ensemble average forecast generated using the BGM (Breeding Growth Mode) and LBGM (Local Breeding Growth Mode) initial perturbation methods had better forecast accuracy than the control forecast, with the LBGM evaluation producing better results. The severe precipitation area was located in a region of high atmospheric moisture divergence and low-level convergence, and the distribution of negative vertical vorticity and positive vertical vorticity in the upper and lower levels of the atmosphere corresponded to the precipitation area. The study also identified the positive and tilted pressure of wet potential vorticity as having a certain indicative significance for severe precipitation, with the negative MPV1 region at 850 hPa and the positive MPV2 region corresponding well with the precipitation band and intensity development. The LBGM scheme exhibits superior improvement in rainfall intensity compared to the BGM scheme, primarily due to the more realistic simulation of water vapor flux divergence and vorticity in the LBGM scheme.

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劉侃,陳超輝,何宏讓,姜勇強.一次高原強降水過程的對流尺度集合預(yù)報試驗及診斷分析.氣象科學(xué),2024,44(5):847-856 LIU Kan, CHEN Chaohui, HE Hongrang, JIANG Yongqiang. Convective-scale ensemble forecast experiment and diagnostic analysis of a high-altitude heavy precipitation process. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2024,44(5):847-856

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收稿日期:2023-05-23
最后修改日期:2023-08-23
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2024-11-21
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