廣東前汛期連續(xù)暴雨的天氣概念模型

doi:10.12306/2022jms.0019

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廣東前汛期連續(xù)暴雨的天氣概念模型
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                        10.12306/2022jms.0019
                    
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中圖分類號:P458.121.1
基金項(xiàng)目:國家重點(diǎn)研究發(fā)展計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(2018YFC1505806);氣象預(yù)報(bào)業(yè)務(wù)關(guān)鍵技術(shù)發(fā)展專項(xiàng)子項(xiàng)目(YBGJXM (2020)4A-05);中國氣象局創(chuàng)新發(fā)展專項(xiàng)(CXFZ2021Z010);廣東省氣象局揭榜掛帥項(xiàng)目(GRMCGS202101);廣東省氣象局科學(xué)研究項(xiàng)目(GRMC2021M06)

The weather conceptual model for continuous torrential rain in the first rainy season in Guangdong

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摘要:

利用1961—2019年廣東省86站逐日降水資料及NCEP/NCAR再分析資料,對廣東前汛期連續(xù)暴雨統(tǒng)計(jì)特征進(jìn)行分析,并從500 hPa中低緯度環(huán)流條件、850 hPa u、v風(fēng)場條件和高低層散度條件3個(gè)方面進(jìn)行綜合分析,建立了廣東前汛期連續(xù)暴雨的天氣概念模型。結(jié)果表明:(1)廣東前汛期連續(xù)暴雨過程4、5、6月占比分別為12.0%、38.9%和49.1%,過程主要發(fā)生在5—6月。(2)對108次歷史連續(xù)暴雨過程進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn)統(tǒng)計(jì),其中102次符合概念模型,回報(bào)準(zhǔn)確率達(dá)94.4%;應(yīng)用概念模型準(zhǔn)確預(yù)報(bào)了2020年6月5—9日的連續(xù)暴雨過程,說明其具有較好的預(yù)報(bào)能力。

Abstract:

Based on the daily precipitation data of 86 stations in Guangdong Province and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1961 to 2019, the characteristics of continuous torrential rain in the first rainy season in Guangdong were analyzed, and the weather conceptual model was established based on three conditions: circulation in middle-low latitudes at 500 hPa, u-wind and v-wind at 850 hPa and divergence in high-low levels. Results show that: (1) the proportion of continuous torrential rain process in Guangdong in April, May and June is 12.0%, 38.9% and 49.1%, respectively. The process mainly occurr in May to June. (2) There are 102 processes of continuous torrential rain matching the conceptual model through examining 108 historical processes, and the confidence rate is 94.4%. The continuous torrential rain process from June 5 to 9, 2020 is accurately forecasted by using the conceptual model, which shows that it has good forecasting ability.

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于玲玲,麥健華,紀(jì)忠萍.廣東前汛期連續(xù)暴雨的天氣概念模型.氣象科學(xué),2024,44(5):890-898 YU Lingling, MAI Jianhua, JI Zhongping. The weather conceptual model for continuous torrential rain in the first rainy season in Guangdong. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2024,44(5):890-898

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收稿日期:2021-11-09
最后修改日期:2022-01-06
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2024-11-21
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