基于災(zāi)情數(shù)據(jù)的江蘇省大風(fēng)災(zāi)害等級和損失風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評價(jià)方法

doi:10.12306/2023jms.0050

首頁 > 過刊瀏覽>2024年第44卷第5期 >997-1002. DOI:10.12306/2023jms.0050

基于災(zāi)情數(shù)據(jù)的江蘇省大風(fēng)災(zāi)害等級和損失風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評價(jià)方法
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                        10.12306/2023jms.0050
                    
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中圖分類號:P429
基金項(xiàng)目:江蘇省氣象局科研基金面上資助項(xiàng)目(KM202101)

Evaluation method of gale disaster grade and loss risk in Jiangsu Province based on disaster data

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摘要:

利用2008—2022年江蘇省65個縣、區(qū)的大風(fēng)災(zāi)情數(shù)據(jù)和同步氣象資料,對不同量級的災(zāi)情指標(biāo)做規(guī)范化處理,建立綜合災(zāi)情指數(shù);經(jīng)K-均值聚類分析,確定大風(fēng)指標(biāo)和災(zāi)情等級;基于各等級大風(fēng)的成災(zāi)頻率和災(zāi)情指數(shù)構(gòu)建大風(fēng)災(zāi)害損失風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估模型,結(jié)合GIS的空間分析技術(shù)開展江蘇省大風(fēng)災(zāi)害損失風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評價(jià)研究。結(jié)果顯示,江蘇省大風(fēng)災(zāi)害損失風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分布總體呈現(xiàn)北高南低的態(tài)勢,災(zāi)害損失的高、中風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)主要分布在淮北西部、沿淮東部以及蘇南的局部地區(qū),而連云港和淮河以南大部分地區(qū)大風(fēng)災(zāi)害損失風(fēng)險(xiǎn)相對較低,這在一定程度上體現(xiàn)出江蘇各地的大風(fēng)成災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)水平和抗災(zāi)能力。

Abstract:

Using the gale disaster data and corresponding meteorological data of 65 national stations in Jiangsu Province from 2008 to 2022, a risk assessment model for gale disaster losses was structured based on the frequency and damage index of various levels of gales, which were obtained by the normalization of disaster indicators and K-means clustering analysis. And then the risk assessment of gale disaster loss in Jiangsu was carried out with the model and GIS spatial analysis technology. Results indicate that the distribution of gale disaster loss risk in Jiangsu appears a trend of higher in the north and lower in the south. The high and medium risk areas of gale disaster loss are distributed mainly in the western part of Huaibei region, the eastern part along the Huaihe River, and some parts of southern Jiangsu, while the loss risk in Lianyungang region and most areas south of the Huaihe River is relatively lower. And it partly reflects the level of gale disasters and the ability to resist disasters in Jiangsu.

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吳洪顏,顧榮直,王勇.基于災(zāi)情數(shù)據(jù)的江蘇省大風(fēng)災(zāi)害等級和損失風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評價(jià)方法.氣象科學(xué),2024,44(5):997-1002 WU Hongyan, GU Rongzhi, WANG Yong. Evaluation method of gale disaster grade and loss risk in Jiangsu Province based on disaster data. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2024,44(5):997-1002

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收稿日期:2023-04-24
最后修改日期:2023-06-26
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2024-11-21
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