WACCM4對20世紀(jì)末12月—次年2月平流層十年際變化模擬的動(dòng)力偏差

doi:10.12306/2022jms.0095

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WACCM4對20世紀(jì)末12月—次年2月平流層十年際變化模擬的動(dòng)力偏差
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                        10.12306/2022jms.0095
                    
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中圖分類號:P421.32
基金項(xiàng)目:廣東省重點(diǎn)領(lǐng)域研發(fā)計(jì)劃資助項(xiàng)目(2020B1111200001);國家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目(41575040)

On dynamic deviations of stratospheric decadal changes simulated by WACCM4 for DJF at the end of the 20th century

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本文以ERA5資料為參考,對比分析WACCM模式對北半球熱帶外平流層冬季逐月(12月—次年2月)溫度和環(huán)流的模擬結(jié)果,重點(diǎn)探討模式對十年際變化的模擬偏差,而后結(jié)合行星波活動(dòng)探討引起模擬偏差的動(dòng)力原因。ERA5資料結(jié)果表明,1980—2000年北半球平流層冬季溫度和緯向風(fēng)的氣候態(tài)逐月差異較小,但其十年際變化差異較大,表現(xiàn)為從12月暖弱極渦向次年2月冷強(qiáng)極渦的連續(xù)演變。WACCM基本能模擬出逐月的氣候平均場,也能模擬出12月、2月近乎反向的平流層溫度與環(huán)流變化,但其12月—次年2月的十年際變化顯示出不連續(xù)性。進(jìn)一步診斷發(fā)現(xiàn),資料與模式行星波1波強(qiáng)度和1~3波沿極地波導(dǎo)傳播有顯著的逐月變化,這與平流層溫度和緯向風(fēng)的變化相匹配。WACCM模擬的1波強(qiáng)度、E-P通量及其散度的十年際變化表現(xiàn)為逐月不連續(xù),相應(yīng)地,其平流層溫度和環(huán)流的十年際變化也表現(xiàn)為冬季內(nèi)不連續(xù)。

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By comparison with the ERA5 reanalysis, this study evaluated the WACCM modeling of extratropical temperature and circulation in the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere during winter months (December-January-February, DJF) at the end of the 20th century. Then this paper focused on the WACCM simulations for the stratospheric decadal changes (1990s minus 1980s) and, through diagnosing the planetary wave activity, detected the dynamic causes of model deviations. The climatological monthly mean temperature and zonal wind from ERA5 appear to have no evident variations in winter, but their decadal changes show a clear evolution from a relatively warm and weak polar vortex in December to a relatively cold and strong polar vortex in February. WACCM can reproduce the monthly mean climatology and the opposite decadal changes of temperature and circulation in December and February. However, the simulated monthly decadal changes show discontinuity during DJF. For both the reanalysis and WACCM modeling, the decadal changes in the strength of planetary wave with wavenumber 1 and in the propagation of planetary waves with wavenumbers 1-3 along the polar waveguide display significant monthly changes that match with the respective monthly changes in the temperature and zonal wind. However, the simulated mon￣thly decadal changes by WACCM in the strength of wave 1 and in the E-P flux and its divergence of waves 1-3 show corresponding winter discontinuity to that shown in the stratospheric temperature and circulation.

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徐凡森,劉仁強(qiáng). WACCM4對20世紀(jì)末12月—次年2月平流層十年際變化模擬的動(dòng)力偏差.氣象科學(xué),2024,44(6):1102-1110 XU Fansen, LIU Renqiang. On dynamic deviations of stratospheric decadal changes simulated by WACCM4 for DJF at the end of the 20th century. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2024,44(6):1102-1110

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收稿日期:2022-06-18
最后修改日期:2022-10-21
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2025-01-08
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