2024年中國(guó)主要?dú)夂蝻L(fēng)險(xiǎn)及氣象災(zāi)害概述

doi:10.12306/2025jms.0001

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2024年中國(guó)主要?dú)夂蝻L(fēng)險(xiǎn)及氣象災(zāi)害概述
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                        10.12306/2025jms.0001
                    
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中圖分類號(hào):P467
基金項(xiàng)目:國(guó)家重點(diǎn)研發(fā)項(xiàng)目(2024YFF0809202);高原與盆地暴雨旱澇災(zāi)害四川省重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室開放研究基金項(xiàng)目(SZKT202410);國(guó)家氣候中心重點(diǎn)創(chuàng)新團(tuán)隊(duì)"第三極氣候變化監(jiān)測(cè)預(yù)估"(NCCCXTD007);中國(guó)氣象局創(chuàng)新發(fā)展專項(xiàng)(CXFZ2023J071)

Overview of the China climate risk and major meteorological disaster in 2024

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本文利用1961—2024年中國(guó)區(qū)域2 400余站地面氣象逐日觀測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)和災(zāi)情數(shù)據(jù),采用氣候年景指數(shù)、氣候風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù)以及客觀化氣象災(zāi)害過(guò)程識(shí)別方法,對(duì)2024年中國(guó)主要?dú)夂蝻L(fēng)險(xiǎn)特征及氣象災(zāi)害進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)性分析。結(jié)果表明,2024年我國(guó)氣候年景總體偏差,氣候風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù)為1961年以來(lái)最高,氣象災(zāi)害造成的損失偏重。其中,區(qū)域型暴雨過(guò)程次數(shù)偏多,降水量大,華南前汛期降水量較常年偏多40%,長(zhǎng)江中下游梅雨較常年偏多51%,氣候風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù)創(chuàng)歷史新高,造成重大人員傷亡和經(jīng)濟(jì)損失;高溫過(guò)程次數(shù)偏少但持續(xù)時(shí)間長(zhǎng)、范圍廣,高溫風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù)為1961年以來(lái)第二高;干旱次數(shù)偏少且風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù)偏低,區(qū)域特征顯著;臺(tái)風(fēng)登陸次數(shù)偏多,秋季臺(tái)風(fēng)活躍且極端性強(qiáng),風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù)較常年值偏低;冷空氣過(guò)程次數(shù)偏多,風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù)較常年值偏高。

Abstract:

Based on the routine daily meteorological observation data at more than 2 400 weather stations and disaster data in China from 1961 to 2024, this paper systematically summarized and evaluated the main climate risk characteristics and meteorological disasters in China during 2024. The analysis employs the climate status index, climate risk index, and an objective identification method for meteorological disaster processes. The assessment results show that the climate status of China in 2024 is poor, the climate risk index is the highest since 1961, and the losses caused by meteorological disasters are heavy. Among them, the number of regional rainstorm processes and accumulative precipitation are higher than normal. The precipitation during pre-rainy season in South China is 40% more than normal, and the Meiyu over middle and low region of the Yangtze River valley is 51% more than normal. The climate risk index of rainfall and flood reached a record high, causing heavy casualties and economic losses. The number of high-temperature processes is relatively low but high temperature weather covering a wide range and showing strong phased characteristics, the risk index is the second highest since 1961. The frequency of drought is relatively low and the risk index is low, but the regional characteristics are significant. More typhoons are making landfall, and the autumn typhoon is active and extreme, with a lower risk index than usual. The frequency of regional low-temperature processes is relatively high, and the risk index is higher than normal.

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王雅琦,王國(guó)復(fù),劉遠(yuǎn),喬琦,徐沅鑫.2024年中國(guó)主要?dú)夂蝻L(fēng)險(xiǎn)及氣象災(zāi)害概述.氣象科學(xué),2025,45(1):1-12 WANG Yaqi, WANG Guofu, LIU Yuan, QIAO Qi, XU Yuanxin. Overview of the China climate risk and major meteorological disaster in 2024. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2025,45(1):1-12

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收稿日期:2024-01-08
最后修改日期:2024-01-22
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2025-03-08
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