不同風(fēng)暴軸活動(dòng)指標(biāo)與東亞—西太平洋區(qū)域高影響天氣的關(guān)系差異

doi:10.12306/2024jms.0044

首頁(yè) > 過(guò)刊瀏覽>2025年第45卷第1期 >13-25. DOI:10.12306/2024jms.0044

不同風(fēng)暴軸活動(dòng)指標(biāo)與東亞—西太平洋區(qū)域高影響天氣的關(guān)系差異
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                        10.12306/2024jms.0044
                    
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中圖分類(lèi)號(hào):P434;P732
基金項(xiàng)目:國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目(42105066;42205046;42305069);中國(guó)博士后科學(xué)基金面上項(xiàng)目(2021M701754);江蘇省博士后科研資助計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(2021K195B)

Study on the differences in relationship between various storm track metrics and high-impact weather over the East Asia-West Pacific region

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風(fēng)暴軸是中緯度地區(qū)導(dǎo)致強(qiáng)風(fēng)和降水等高影響天氣的重要系統(tǒng),然而不同風(fēng)暴軸活動(dòng)指標(biāo)的天氣影響可能存在差異。本文在歸納了13個(gè)常用風(fēng)暴軸活動(dòng)指標(biāo)(9個(gè)歐拉指標(biāo)和4個(gè)拉格朗日指標(biāo))的基礎(chǔ)上,將月降水量和近地面大風(fēng)定義為高影響天氣指標(biāo),利用最大相關(guān)系數(shù)和變形典型相關(guān)分析方法研究了不同風(fēng)暴軸活動(dòng)指標(biāo)與東亞—西太平洋區(qū)域高影響天氣間的關(guān)系差異。結(jié)果表明,相較于其他風(fēng)暴軸活動(dòng)指標(biāo),對(duì)流層中低層的歐拉風(fēng)暴軸指標(biāo)與高影響天氣指標(biāo)有著較強(qiáng)的關(guān)聯(lián)性,拉格朗日指標(biāo)與降水指標(biāo)的關(guān)聯(lián)性要高于其與大風(fēng)指標(biāo)的關(guān)聯(lián)性。具體而言,700 hPa垂直速度方差指標(biāo)與近地面大風(fēng)的相關(guān)性最好,850 hPa相對(duì)渦度方差和渦旋動(dòng)能指標(biāo)與降水的相關(guān)性最好。本文通過(guò)兩個(gè)評(píng)估框架確定了與東亞—西太平洋高影響天氣關(guān)系最為密切的風(fēng)暴軸指標(biāo),可為深入認(rèn)知中緯度風(fēng)暴軸活動(dòng)的天氣影響,以及東亞—西太平洋區(qū)域高影響天氣監(jiān)測(cè)預(yù)警提供參考。

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Storm track plays a crucial role in contributing to the development of high-impact weather conditions such as high wind and precipitation over the mid-latitude regions. However,there may be differences in weather impacts of various storm track metrics. In this paper,the 13 commonly used storm track metrics (9 Eulerian metrics and 4 Lagrangian metrics) were summarized,monthly precipitation and near-surface high wind were defined as the high-impact weather indicators. Then,the differences in the relationship between various storm track metrics and high-impact weather indicators over the East Asia-West Pacific region by two methods: maximum correlation coefficient and deformed canonical correlation analysis were investigated. Results show that among all storm track metrics,Eulerian metrics in the lower troposphere show a stronger association with the high-impact weather indicators. On the other hand,Lagrangian metrics demonstrate a higher correlation with precipitation rather than high wind. Specifically,the 700 hPa vertical velocity variance metric exhibits the highest correlation with the near-surface high wind,while the relative vorticity variance and eddy kinetic energy metrics at 850 hPa display highest correlations with the precipitation.Through the two evaluation frameworks,this study identifies which storm track metric is most closely linked to the high-impact weather over the East Asia-West Pacific region. These findings can deepen the understanding of weather impacts of storm track activity and contribute to the monitoring and early warning of high-impact weather events in this area.

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肖娜,余沛龍,張立鳳,張潮,楊明浩,姜勇強(qiáng).不同風(fēng)暴軸活動(dòng)指標(biāo)與東亞—西太平洋區(qū)域高影響天氣的關(guān)系差異.氣象科學(xué),2025,45(1):13-25 XIAO Na, YU Peilong, ZHANG Lifeng, ZHANG Chao, YANG Minghao, JIANG Yongqiang. Study on the differences in relationship between various storm track metrics and high-impact weather over the East Asia-West Pacific region. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2025,45(1):13-25

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收稿日期:2024-06-25
最后修改日期:2024-07-17
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在線(xiàn)發(fā)布日期: 2025-03-08
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