集合敏感性分析法在一次典型梅雨鋒暴雨中的應用

doi:10.12306/2023jms.0001

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集合敏感性分析法在一次典型梅雨鋒暴雨中的應用
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                        10.12306/2023jms.0001
                    
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中圖分類號:P458.121.1
基金項目:中國氣象局預報員專項(CMAYBY2020-051);浙江省氣象局科技計劃重點項目(2022ZD01)

Application of the method of ensemble sensitivity analysis in torrential rainfall of typical Meiyu front

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摘要:

針對2017年6月11—12日影響浙江的一次典型梅雨鋒暴雨過程,利用集合敏感性分析法研究了與暴雨落區(qū)、強度和相鄰時次預報降水差異相關的短期和中期時段內(nèi)主要環(huán)流系統(tǒng)的敏感性區(qū)域及其演變發(fā)展特征,驗證了利用模式早期誤差推算未來誤差分布及強度演變的可能性。結果表明:(1)中期時段內(nèi)與落區(qū)相關的主要敏感性天氣系統(tǒng)為巴爾科什湖地區(qū)的低槽及其上游烏拉爾山地區(qū)的低渦,進入短期時段后,該低槽的發(fā)展將對其下游高壓脊的發(fā)展和位置產(chǎn)生較明顯的影響,進而影響阻塞高壓前部深厚低渦系統(tǒng)的移動。高原西南部低槽的東移發(fā)展及副熱帶高壓不同位置上的強度變化對落區(qū)也有顯著影響;(2)對于強度而言,短期時段內(nèi)敏感性信號較強,但進入中期時段后,信號則明顯減弱,且主要集中在巴爾科什湖西北方的低渦附近。此外低緯度地區(qū)副熱帶高壓與熱帶低壓系統(tǒng)之間的相互作用及低壓移動路徑將對短期時段內(nèi)副高西段的強度產(chǎn)生影響;(3)相鄰時次降水預報差異的原因,在臨近暴雨發(fā)生前與阻塞高壓南側(cè)、副高北側(cè)的發(fā)展強度,高原東側(cè)脊的強弱及高原中南部低壓槽的發(fā)展有關,中期時段可以追溯到烏拉爾山低渦、巴爾克什湖低槽及高原西南側(cè)的低槽附近,副高附近敏感性區(qū)域的演變則呈較明顯的不連續(xù)特征;(4)前向集合回歸的敏感性分析試驗表明,正負回歸區(qū)域與同時次上位勢高度差的演變發(fā)展趨勢存在較高的一致性,這表明早期模式誤差可以預測未來系統(tǒng)誤差的演變發(fā)展特征。

Abstract:

By using the method of ensemble sensitivity analysis,this paper investigated the sensitivity areas of major circulation systems associated with the torrential rainfall of typical Meiyu front during 11-12 June 2017 over Zhejiang,and their evolution processes during short and medium ranges. Then, the possibility of prediction for error distribution and its evolution characteristics in the future by using early forecast errors were evaluated. Results are as follows: (1) it is showed that in medium range the major sensitive weather systems associated with torrential rainfall location are the lower trough nearby the Balkash Lake and the upstream vortex in the region of Ural Hill,while in short range the development of the lower trough has significant impact on the evolution of the downstream ridge,which further influences the movement of the deeper vortex in front of the blocking high. Also torrential rainfall location is substantially influenced by the eastward movement and development of the trough in the south-west Tibet Plateau and by the intensity changes in different parts of the subtropical high. It is also found that signal of sensitivity is strong in short range but weak in medium range,which mainly correlates with the vortex located in the upstream region of the Balkash Lake,so is the analysis of torrential rainfall intensity. In addition the interaction between the subtropical high and the tropical depression in lower latitude,and the depression's track have effects on the intensity in west side of the subtropical high. (2) The difference of forecasted precipitation between two adjacent runs are correlated with,near the time approaching torrential rainfall,the intensities of the blocking high and the subtropical high,the development of the low trough and ridge in the south-central and eastern Tibet Plateau,and in medium range,the vortex in the region of Ural Hill,the troughs in the Balkash Lake and the south-west Tibet Plateau. In addition,the evolution of the sensitivity areas in the subtropical high shows obvious features of discontinuous. (3) The result from the sensitivity experiment of Forward Ensemble Regression (FWD) indicates that the positive and negative regression areas coincide well with the error evolution of geopential height, which indicates the possibility of prediction for model future errors with the early forecast ones.

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何斌,宋劉明,任思婧.集合敏感性分析法在一次典型梅雨鋒暴雨中的應用.氣象科學,2025,45(1):68-81 HE Bin, SONG Liuming, REN Sijing. Application of the method of ensemble sensitivity analysis in torrential rainfall of typical Meiyu front. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2025,45(1):68-81

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收稿日期:2022-04-24
最后修改日期:2023-01-18
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2025-03-08
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