基于聚類算法的天津雷暴移動特征分析

doi:10.12306/2022jms.0075

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基于聚類算法的天津雷暴移動特征分析
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                        10.12306/2022jms.0075
                    
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中圖分類號:P446
基金項目:天津市氣象局科研項目(202116ybxm06)

Analysis on movement characteristics of thunderstorms in Tianjin with clustering algorithm

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摘要:

基于2009—2020年天津地區(qū)閃電定位數(shù)據(jù),利用密度峰值快速搜索聚類算法和卡爾曼濾波識別雷暴單體的移動軌跡,并通過基于動態(tài)時間規(guī)整的改進層次聚類算法統(tǒng)計天津雷暴的主要活動區(qū)域及其移動特征。結果表明,近12 a天津地區(qū)的地閃頻數(shù)存在減少趨勢,地閃頻數(shù)的年變化呈單峰型,峰值出現(xiàn)在7月;日變化的峰值出現(xiàn)在午夜,谷值出現(xiàn)在上午;地閃密度呈北多南少的空間分布。根據(jù)閃電的叢聚特性在天津地區(qū)共識別出757條雷暴軌跡。雷暴具有明顯的短時性、局地性特點,約三分之二雷暴的位移不超過20 km、持續(xù)時間不超過30 min,近三分之一的雷暴向正東方向移動。天津西北部是局地性雷暴最活躍的區(qū)域,較長軌跡的雷暴數(shù)量較少且分布較分散。西北類雷暴減少趨勢最顯著,雷暴數(shù)量的地域性差異變小。西北類雷暴6月出現(xiàn)最多,西南類雷暴7、8月出現(xiàn)數(shù)量相當,東部類雷暴8月出現(xiàn)最多,其他類雷暴則在7月出現(xiàn)最多。

Abstract:

Based on the data from lightning detection and location system in Tianjin from 2009 to 2020, the thunderstorm cell tracks were identified by using clustering by fast search and find of density peaks and Kalman filtering, and the movement characteristics of thunderstorm in Tianjin were analyzed by the improved hierarchical clustering algorithm based on dynamic time warping. Results show that the frequency of ground lightning in Tianjin has a decreasing trend in recent 12 years. The monthly change of lightning frequency fluctuates in a single peak, and the peak value assumed in July. The peak value of daily variation appears at midnight and the valley value appears in the forenoon. Spatially, the density of lightning is denser in the northern Tianjin than in the southern. According to the clustering characteristics of lightning, 757 thunderstorm tracks are identified in Tianjin, which have obvious regional and short-term features. There are about two-thirds of the thunderstorms which displacement is within 20 km and the duration does not exceed 30 min, and there are nearly one-third of the thunderstorms moving due east. Local thunderstorms are most active in north-western Tianjin. The thunderstorms with relatively long moving distance are not abundant, with disperse distribution. The results of cluster analysis show that the reduction trend of thunderstorm in north-western Tianjin is the most significant, indicating that the regional difference of the number of thunderstorms become smaller. Moreover, the number of thunderstorms in north-western Tianjin peaked in June, which in eastern Tianjin peaked in August, while the number of thunderstorms in south-western Tianjin peaked both in July and August.

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姚慧茹,崔丹陽,宋喃喃,銀峰.基于聚類算法的天津雷暴移動特征分析.氣象科學,2025,45(1):95-108 YAO Huiru, CUI Danyang, SONG Nannan, YIN Feng. Analysis on movement characteristics of thunderstorms in Tianjin with clustering algorithm. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2025,45(1):95-108

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收稿日期:2022-05-16
最后修改日期:2022-09-12
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2025-03-08
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