2020年山東最強(qiáng)暴雨過程預(yù)報(bào)難點(diǎn)分析

doi:10.12306/2023jms.0007

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2020年山東最強(qiáng)暴雨過程預(yù)報(bào)難點(diǎn)分析
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                        10.12306/2023jms.0007
                    
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中圖分類號(hào):P458
基金項(xiàng)目:山東省氣象局重點(diǎn)科研項(xiàng)目(2012sdqxz04;2019sdqxz07);山東省自然科學(xué)基金面上資助項(xiàng)目(ZR2020MD055);山東省重點(diǎn)研發(fā)計(jì)劃資助項(xiàng)目(2016GSF120017);中國氣象局預(yù)報(bào)員專項(xiàng)項(xiàng)目(CMAYBY2020-070)

Analysis on the severest precipitation process of Shandong in 2020

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采用氣象觀測(cè)、黑體亮溫 (Blackbody Temperature, TBB)及美國國家環(huán)境預(yù)報(bào)中心(National Centers for Environment Prediction, NCEP)1°×1°再分析等資料,分析2020年8月5—7日山東年度最強(qiáng)降水過程的預(yù)報(bào)難點(diǎn)。結(jié)果表明:(1)暖區(qū)暴雨由于本地動(dòng)力條件差、預(yù)報(bào)難度大,移入的強(qiáng)對(duì)流天氣區(qū)可能是其重要的觸發(fā)機(jī)制:移入雨區(qū)的向外流出氣流與暖濕環(huán)境的風(fēng)場(chǎng)形成地面輻合線,進(jìn)入對(duì)流不穩(wěn)定環(huán)境中,觸發(fā)暖區(qū)暴雨;雖然這類地面輻合線較弱,但由于整層大氣高溫高濕且具有深厚的不穩(wěn)定層結(jié)條件,弱動(dòng)力作用即可觸發(fā)潛在對(duì)流不穩(wěn)定釋放產(chǎn)生暖區(qū)暴雨。因此,對(duì)于弱強(qiáng)迫形勢(shì)下的暖區(qū)暴雨,除了分析其有利的天氣形勢(shì)和溫濕條件,進(jìn)一步分析初始回波在何時(shí)、何地生成和移入本地是提高暴雨落區(qū)預(yù)報(bào)的精準(zhǔn)度的有利措施。(2)本次強(qiáng)降水過程,高低空形勢(shì)配置和降水機(jī)制類似于江淮梅雨的"無腳鋒",地面分析不出鋒面,但高空鋒明顯,暴雨區(qū)與高空鋒區(qū)的上升支有關(guān)。(3)本次過程濟(jì)南本地層結(jié)條件較差,可能是造成大范圍暴雨區(qū)中出現(xiàn)濟(jì)南附近小雨量區(qū)的主要原因。(4)短時(shí)強(qiáng)降水的發(fā)生對(duì)應(yīng)TBB的明顯下降,1 h雨量超過20 mm的雨區(qū)對(duì)應(yīng)TBB在214 K以下。

Abstract:

Based on the conventional observation data, the Blackbody Temperature (TBB) data and the NCEP 1°×1° reanalysis data, the difficulties in forecasting the annual severest precipitation process in Shandong on August 5-7, 2020 were analyzed. Results show that the immigrant strong convection may be an important trigger for the warm-zone rainstorm, which is difficult to forecast due to the weak local dynamic environment. The surface convergence line is formed after the interaction between the outward airflow from the immigrant rain area and the wind field in the warm-humid environment. The convergence line enters the potential unstable environment and triggers the warm-zone rainstorm. Although this kind of surface convergence line is weak, the whole layer is quite unstable due to the high temperature and high humidity. The weak dynamic effect can trigger the release of high instability energy, and finally the warm-zone rainstorm occurs. Therefore, in addition to analyzing the favorable weather conditions, the detailed analysis on when and where the upstream echoes will impact the studied area could help improve the forecast accuracy of warm-zone rainstorm. The heavy rainfall processes in Shandong during the rainy season are generally located between the subtropical high and the 500 hPa trough. The weather conditions and precipitation mechanisms of the Shandong rainstorm are similar to those of the Jiang-Huai Meiyu. There is often no significant surface front, but an obvious upper-air front. The rainstorm is related to the ascending flow in the upper-air frontal area. For the weak-rainfall center embedded in the large-scale rainstorm area, the analysis on local stratification conditions should be strengthened, and the convective inhibition energy is a very important parameter. The short-term heavy rainfall corresponds to a significant decrease of TBB, and the area with 1 h rainfall larger than 20 mm corresponds to the area with TBB below 214 K.

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孫興池,史茜,盛春巖,孟憲貴,韓永清.2020年山東最強(qiáng)暴雨過程預(yù)報(bào)難點(diǎn)分析.氣象科學(xué),2025,45(1):109-117 SUN Xingchi, SHI Qian, SHENG Chunyan, MENG Xiangui, HAN Yongqing. Analysis on the severest precipitation process of Shandong in 2020. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2025,45(1):109-117

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收稿日期:2022-04-21
最后修改日期:2023-02-06
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2025-03-08
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