長江上游干旱事件預估及其對水力發(fā)電影響研究

doi:10.12306/2023jms.0021

首頁 > 過刊瀏覽>2025年第45卷第2期 >166-175. DOI:10.12306/2023jms.0021

長江上游干旱事件預估及其對水力發(fā)電影響研究
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                        10.12306/2023jms.0021
                    
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中圖分類號:P426.616
基金項目:中國長江電力有限公司委托項目(Z242302054)

Projection of drought events in the upper Yangtze River Basin and its impact on hydropower

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基于第6次國際耦合模式比較計劃(CMIP6)氣候模式數(shù)據(jù)和SPEI干旱指數(shù),預估了2021—2100年長江上游干旱事件演變趨勢及其對水力發(fā)電的影響。結(jié)果表明:(1)多模式集合MME數(shù)據(jù)能夠較好地模擬1961—2014年長江上游氣溫和降水的年內(nèi)變化和年際波動特征,相關系數(shù)分別達到0.99和0.96;(2)未來長江上游總體呈現(xiàn)變濕的趨勢,但2021—2050年干旱事件仍頻繁發(fā)生。其中,在SSP2-4.5情景下,干旱發(fā)生頻率為11.74%~28.32%,金沙江上游是干旱頻率最高的地區(qū);在SSP5-8.5情景下,相比2021—2050年,2071—2100年幾乎全流域干旱發(fā)生頻率均有不同程度的增加,干旱發(fā)生頻率為11.73%~29.55%;(3)多模式多情景預估表明,2021—2045年是長江上游干旱頻發(fā)期?；赟WAT水文模型預測,在SSP2-4.5情景下,2025—2027年長江上游干旱事件可能導致三峽水庫相比多年平均減少2 120億m³入庫流量,此外,高排放情景下三峽水庫入庫流量可能比低排放情景下下降更為嚴重。以上研究結(jié)果可為氣候變化背景下的區(qū)域干旱減災與水電供應提供參考。

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Based on the sixth International Coupled Model Comparison Program (CMIP6) climate model data and SPEI drought index, this paper predict the evolution trend of drought events in the upper Yangtze River Basin and the impacts on hydropower from 2021 to 2100. Results indicate that (1) the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) data can simulate the annual and interannual fluctuation characteristics of temperature and precipitation in the upper Yangtze River during 1961-2014, with the correlation coefficients reaching 0.99 and 0.96, respectively. (2)The upper Yangtze River basin has a general trend of becoming wetter in the future, but drought events are still frequent from 2021 to 2050. Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, the frequency of droughts ranges from 11.74% to 28.32% during 2021 to 2050, and the upper Jinsha River basin is the area with the highest frequency of droughts. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, compared with 2021-2050, the frequency of droughts will increase to varying degrees in almost the whole basin during 2071-2100, ranging from 11.73% to 29.55%.(3) Multi-model and multi-scenario prediction indicate that 2021-2045 is a period of frequent droughts in the upper Yangtze River. Based on the SWAT hydrological model, this paper predicts the drought events in 2025-2027 under the SSP2-4.5 scenario may lead to an average reduction of 212 billion-m³ inflow of the Three Gorges Reservoir. Compared with the result of many years. In addition, the inflow of the Three Gorges Reservoir under the discharge scenario may decline more seriously than that under the low discharge scenario. The results of the study can provide valuable reference on regional drought mitigation and hydropower supply in the context of climate change.

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彭振華,胡鑫,孔蕊,徐楊,毛勁喬,張增信.長江上游干旱事件預估及其對水力發(fā)電影響研究.氣象科學,2025,45(2):166-175 PENG Zhenhua, HU Xing, KONG Rui, XU Yang, Mao Jinqiao, ZHANG Zengxin. Projection of drought events in the upper Yangtze River Basin and its impact on hydropower. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2025,45(2):166-175

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收稿日期:2022-11-17
最后修改日期:2023-03-09
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2025-07-03
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